Zeev....
I was about to post this response to Sandy Mack but noticed you had moved his post to this thread - thanks.
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Sandy Mack....
"None of this history, though, supports the contention that he is a threat to the U.S., either directly by attack, or indirectly by acting in concert with international terrorists."
No??? I think you need to check your facts. It was Saddam that ordered an assassination attempt on George Bush I - an act accepted by most nations as a casus belli. Saddam clearly has caused Iraq to be a haven for terrorists, with Abu Nidal living there for years. You also need to consider the fact that with only conventional weapons, his reach is limited but as his weapons improve (like his rockets), so will his reach.
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"Further, he is not held in very high regard by any of his neighbors, religion and his pretty new temples notwithstanding"
You will be surprised how quickly his "esteem" in the eyes of the arab world will rise when he is able to announce that he has usable nuclear weapons. He will be a new arab hero.
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"Is it any wonder, then, that the "terrorist threat" seems to have been shifted to a single nation, and that effecting a "regime change" has been defined as a "victory against international terror"?"
I am not aware of anyone making such a claim, certainly not in the administration. Yes, Saddam does support terrorism, both financially and with safe havens, but almost everyone understands that the Iraq situation is only partly against terrorism, being mainly against cutting Saddam off before he gets nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them, along with the biological and chemical weapons he already has. Once he gets nuclear weapons, he becomes another North Korea, and infinitely more difficult to deal with.
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"That still begs the question, though: even assuming the most positive of outcomes (e.g., a swift and decisive victory, and Saddam's death, or ousting from Iraq), what has actually changed from an international perspective? Maybe the markets get an initial pop from the victory...but why? International terrorism remains a threat...the Muslim world is still suspicious of the U.S....there are no guarantees regarding the oil supply, nor of any succeeding Iraqi regime being any better than the current one."
Probably the biggest change is that Saddam would no longer be able to become another mad-man with nukes to back him up, as North Korea now has become. That alone makes it worth getting rid of him, especially given his history and location in the middle east. My guess is that if we do not take him out now, Israel will have to in order to protect herself, and the only realistic way for Israel to do so would be with nukes.
The rest of your comment is probably true - there would be no other real changes in the world and after an initial pop, the markets would probably resume their downside path. This is not about the markets, nor is it about oil or making friends with the arabs - an impossible task.
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"So, I have to ask: is our preoccupation with Iraq simply a Bush smokescreen to mask our ineffectiveness against al Qaeda? I can see nothing good coming from it no matter how it turns out."
No, it is not a "Bush smokescreen" - a ludicrous statement. It is about stopping a madman while we still can, and yes, that by itself would be a very good thing.
An analogy would be if you had two punk bullies in your neighborhood that are crazy and had a history of beating up on weaker neighbors, including women and children, and you have had to go beat up each of them in the past to keep them in line. One day you find out that while you were taking a nap, one of the crazy bullies went out and bought a couple of Uzi machine guns and grenades, which makes him a very formidable foe that you have to deal with very carefully. Meanwhile, you hear that the other punk bully liked that idea and is trying to buy some Uzi's and grenades for himself. Are you going to wait until he gets them or are you going to go whup his ass and kick him out of the neighborhood? If you have any common sense at all, you will deal with him while you still can.
mlsoft
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