Replies to post #130346 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

MNTA

That is a very interesting table on L sales breakdowns.

I am surprised that mL is taking 40% of the hospital sales.

Given that, aggressive competition by an AG would be a big mistake. Any short term gains would more quickly erode than I expected and quickly cut the entire market opportunity.

ij

[y3maxx]

Dew et al

Is it possible that NVS/Sandoz "purposely" increased M enox sales causing SNY to go AG?

If so, how could MNTA prove it?

y3

[DewDiligence]

SNY’s 4Q11 US Lovenox sales were €118M (about $163M at the $1.38 average exchange rate during 4Q11):

http://en.sanofi.com/Images/29618_20120208_2011_Results_EN.pdf

Thus, excluding SNY’s sales of its Lovenox authorized generic (see below), NVS’ 4Q11 share of the US Lovenox market was $225M/($225M+$163M) = 58%, which was unchanged from 3Q11 (#msg-68710933).

The aggregate US Lovenox sales reported by both SNY and NVS were a 12% lower than in 3Q11, which is consistent with the prior acknowledgement by NVS and MNTA of pricing pressure following the FDA approval of Amphastar’s product and the launch of SNY’s AG (#msg-69510335).

Note: SNY’s €118M figure excludes an undisclosed amount for SNY’s authorized generic. If the AG sales during 4Q11 were consequential, then NVS’ actual market share in 4Q11 was somewhat less than the 58% figure mentioned above; however, I think the 12% drop in aggregate Lovenox sales reported by NVS and SNY can be explained almost entirely by pricing, so the AG sales were presumably quite small.