Replies to post #136677 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

(MNTA)—NVS’ 1Q12 sales of generic Lovenox were $176M, down from $225M in 4Q12:

http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/q1-2012-media-release-en.pdf

Reasons for the $49M QoQ decline:

• Launch of the generic from Amphastar/WPI following the Appellate Court’s ruling to stay the preliminary injunction against those companies on 1/26/12.

• The re-launch of SNY’s authorized generic.

• A lower average selling price due to the increased competition.

We may know more about the relative importance of each bullet item when SNY, WPI, and MNTA hold their quarterly CC’s.

Note: During 1Q12, MNTA was in 45% profit-share mode for approximately 1/3 of the quarter and in royalty mode for approximately 2/3 of the quarter.