Replies to post #129380 on Biotech Values

[Double_Bagel]

See the response InvestorGold got from IR. No is the answer.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68336967

[DewDiligence]

Now that the AG launch is official, is there any chance that SNY could pull the launch if MNTA lands a PI on aL? And, if so, is there any scenario wherein MNTA could revert back to profit share mode with NVS on mL?

Yes on the first question.

The answer to the second question is technically no, but is yes from a practical standpoint. I.e. the “hybrid” economics in the NVS-MNTA Lovenox agreement remain permanently in effect once an AG has been launched; however, if sales of the AG tail off or go to zero, the threshold at which NVS’ Lovenox sales in a given launch year switch into 45%-profit-share mode (rather than royalty mode) also decreases, which has the effect of increasing MNTA’s net take.

[zipjet]

And, if so, is there any scenario wherein MNTA could revert back to profit share mode with NVS on mL? (I'm assuming the answers are 'not likely' and 'no.')

I would guess the answer is no too.

But that really misses the point IMO.

Profit maximizing behavior by SNY will still govern if they have two products (branded and AG) and remain rational. So even without backing off of the AG launch, they will not want to so disturb a profit maximizing equilibrium as to hurt their profits. And they have lots of tools to use to do that.

Thus, under the hybrid profit sharing model, there is still a lot to be gained by the PI issuing if SNY behaves rationally.

ij