Now that the AG launch is official, is there any chance that SNY could pull the launch if MNTA lands a PI on aL? And, if so, is there any scenario wherein MNTA could revert back to profit share mode with NVS on mL?
Yes on the first question.
The answer to the second question is technically no, but is yes from a practical standpoint. I.e. the “hybrid” economics in the NVS-MNTA Lovenox agreement remain permanently in effect once an AG has been launched; however, if sales of the AG tail off or go to zero, the threshold at which NVS’ Lovenox sales in a given launch year switch into 45%-profit-share mode (rather than royalty mode) also decreases, which has the effect of increasing MNTA’s net take.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”