Replies to post #129255 on Biotech Values

[Double_Bagel]

If MNTA gets the PI against Amphastar and Teva doesn't get approved for a while, then shouldn't we take the 45% profit share / royalty hybrid arrangement seriously?

But worst of all, how can anyone take the 45% profit share seriously once you know that the hybrid split was triggered by the AG AND we can reasonably expect an Amphastar launch (or a TEVA launch) which would reduce the payments to a straight royalty.

[iwfal]

MNTA -

how can anyone take the 45% profit share seriously once you know that the hybrid split was triggered by the AG AND we can reasonably expect an Amphastar launch (or a TEVA launch) which would reduce the payments to a straight royalty.

Not sure I understand the fretting on this?

1) Yes, Momenta gets an aggregate reduction in royalty/profit-share based upon the launch of the authorized generic - but if you assume no loss of market share (for the purposes of illustration) the loss is actually fairly small. Perhaps 15% of total cash into Momenta. Of course there is the additional loss of market share too - but the profit share loss hardly seems to be huge by itself. Nothing like the loss that comes with the launch of the tL or aL.

2) The threat of Teva or Amphastar launch now is no different now than it was 2 weeks ago - yet your worry seems triggered off the hybrid profit share arrangement and I am not sure I understand how the hybrid arrangement in any way indicates anything about what might happen with tL or aL???