Replies to post #128609 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

I'm going to take the miracle drug. I just feel instinctively that my superhuman constitution will fight off the side effects.

Bad decision. If you take the “miracle” drug, your chance of surviving is only 64%. That’s because 20% of the 80% of total patients who would’ve been cured if they hadn’t been killed by the drug’s side effects will, in fact, be killed by the drug’s side effects, leaving only 80% of the “cured” 80% who will live.

You would’ve been better off taking the mundane drug that cures 70% and kills nobody.

[iwfal]

I'm going to take the miracle drug.

Ok, and would your answer be different if I told you the false positive rate on the test was 30%?

(Note: One more iteration after this)