Replies to post #128688 on Biotech Values

[TastyTheElf]

Ok, and would your answer be different if I told you the false positive rate on the test was 30%?

So....

There's a 30% chance I've been misdiagnosed as having a disease that will kill me, for sure, in a week.

I can take drug A, which will cure me for sure, but then has a 20% chance of killing me with side effects, OR

I can take drug B, which will cure me 70% of the time, with no side effects.

Case 1: I have the deadly disease (70% chance)

Drug A: 20% chance of death x 70% = 14%
Drug B: 30% chance of death x 70% = 21%

Case 2: False positive, I'm fine (30% chance)

Drug A: 20% chance of death x 30% = 6%
Drug B: No chance of death

I have a 20% chance of dying with Drug A, and a 21% chance of dying with Drug B. Close to a wash, but I'm still in the Drug A camp.