Replies to post #128427 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

If you want to make a bear case, I think that "trial" would be a good anchor. I'm not trying to make a bear case, though.

It's tempting to just come up with a modeling scenario that supports the null hypothesis, or at least non-stat-sig results, and then punt. I'm not interested in that. I'm interested in probabilities.

Feel free to develop a set of probabilities - but FYI that was NOT the most conservative of a group of reasonably comparable trials that I found. It was the first (and only) trial I found in 20 minutes of looking for a remotely comparable trial.

If you want to look at the possibilities then I would suggest you find some other comparable trials - comparable meaning

1) Entry protocol of local mets only - and of limited number and size.

2) RFA treatment

3) PFS endpoint - where progression is only counted for new mets only.

Looking forward to your posting links to such trials.