Biotech Values

[TastyTheElf]

tonight I found a more appropriate comparator trial

That's the one that was presented at ASCO, I think, and the CLSN groupies have talked about a lot. It's a meta-analysis, not a trial, and it's in China. Tumor size requirements a bit tighter than the HEAT trial.

I'm wary of Chinese trials the same way you're wary of Eastern Europe. The Chinese like making public displays of how much better they are at everything, despite the fact that the country, generally speaking, is a giant horror film.

If you want to make a bear case, I think that "trial" would be a good anchor. I'm not trying to make a bear case, though.

It's tempting to just come up with a modeling scenario that supports the null hypothesis, or at least non-stat-sig results, and then punt. I'm not interested in that. I'm interested in probabilities.

Biotech investing is about probability-weighted outcomes, and then taking a risk on the best risk/reward profile. If you wait for something that's 100%, you'll be waiting the rest of your life.

There are a LOT of scenarios where HEAT succeeds, and a few where it doesn't. I'm focusing on the whole picture, and then rolling the dice, because I think the dice are loaded in my favor.