Replies to post #128450 on Biotech Values

[TastyTheElf]

Looking forward to your posting links to such trials.

If that were an easy task, my position in this thing would be bigger.

I think I said already that this one is a harder one than usual to handicap given the dearth of sizeable RFA trials for larger tumors.

The "trial" you found is the one people find.

[TastyTheElf]

iwfal, another Chinese analysis (not a trial)... with relatively big tumors...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21445671

In this one, you have a group where there was a single lesion in the 3.1cm to 5cm range. They looked at RFA + TACE vs. RFA alone.

For the RFA alone group, the data showed a 45% 1-year local progression rate. RFA + TACE did much better (9% local progression).

Things to note:
- Single lesion requirement = healthier standard than HEAT, most likely
- TACE not used in control arm of HEAT trial, just RFA
- Local progression is just one way to get an event in HEAT (Progression Free Survival will be measured from the date of randomization to the first date on which one of the following occurs. o Local recurrence o Any new distant intrahepatic HCC tumor o Any new extrahepatic HCC tumor o Death from any cause)

This analysis seems to support control PFS near management's 12 month estimate -- not that I think that's the actual HEAT control arm PFS.