Replies to post #118640 on Biotech Values

[jbog]

Regulardoc,

We know very little about BG-12 after one trial dealing with a placebo arm.

Biogen said the drug cut relapses 49% after two years, compared to placebo, with an annual relapse reduction rate of 53%. It also reduced the progression of disability by 38%. In comparison, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries last week said its oral multiple sclerosis drug reduced the annual relapse rate by 23% and disability progression fell 36%.

The side effect profile will be very important but so far I think the data is in the ballpark of Gelinya.

I'm sure the fear today is that the two next BG12 PhIII trials that are to be reported later this year use Copaxone as the control arm. There is no love between Biogen and Teva.

[stockbettor]

Seems to me the more consequential trial will be the second P3 Biogen is running, which includes a Copaxone arm:

In addition to DEFINE, another Phase 3 RRMS clinical trial, CONFIRM, is currently underway. This study is evaluating BG-12 and an active reference comparator, glatiramer acetate, against placebo on clinical relapse, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of MS, progression of disability, and safety. Results from CONFIRM are expected in the second half of 2011.

http://www.biogenidec.com/PRESS_RELEASE_DETAILS.aspx?ID=5981&ReqId=1548648

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00451451

[DragonBits]

So wouldn't the real trade have been to buy TEVA premarket? They fell more and should regain more if Copaxone isn't damaged. And they have a 13 PE, not expensive. And TEVA did move back up nicely from its' premarket low.

MNTA I think moves up more because it is undervalued regardless of Copaxone rather than falls because of Copaxone, which I always thought was more of a theory about it getting approved anytime soon. In fact, if MTNA takes 2-4 years to get approved, then Copaxone could well be in decline.

IMO since a lot of retail also own MNTA, it tends to trade down more easily than stocks like AMZN, NFLX, ETC. Likely some retail are leveraged, making it more likley they will sell quickly.

On sale is sort of relative thing, IMO MNTA hasn't been on sale since the price went close to 5 in 2008. Below 10 is on sale, down 4% premaket isn't much of a sale.