Replies to post #117461 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

JNJ/ELN/PFE—I put the odds of [Bapineuzumab] success in non-carrier near 60% and carrier around 25%.

On JNJ’s Investor Day webcast yesterday, Husseini Manji (head of neuroscience) said the phase-2 Bapineuzumab data were reanalyzed by “eliminating the assumption of linearity,” and the reanalysis gave the company greater confidence that the phase-3 program will succeed. I’m not sure what he meant.

[biotech jim]

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I put the odds of success in non-carrier near 60% and carrier around 25%.
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Master, don't you have these odds reversed?

I would say 60-80% in APOE4 carriers and 20-40% in non-carriers.

Please provide your rationale if your above statement was in fact what you meant.