Replies to post #1112 on S2 Option Trader

[plashadpobedy]

In the short-term, I'm out.

I don't see how anyone can predict anything but "up" in the short-term, until the FED backs off in June? There's not enough upside to go long, unless you can totally bury your disbelief in the short-term, or you are holding long and lucky enough to catch a breakout (i.e. MRO, and still moving up).

OXY, which I was eyeballing for FEB11 puts, has broken par after 1.5 months in a congestion zone. It looks like a "final" sprint before pulling back, but I'm not going to bet on it. As you can see, it got taken down on the May 6, 2010 plunge, up to -$16/sh.

OXY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OXY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79928865160

Per crude, you can see that USO (an ETF for crude futures) is actually down, vs. the oil stocks being at highs. Somewhat of a disconnect!

USO: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93875401212

TZA (x3 short ETF SMALL CAP) long...from someone's early rec, keeps hitting new lows. Glad I didn't follow that one.