S2 Option Trader

[plashadpobedy]

Righty-0 beeg fella......

The market's going cwazy. Keep us informed as to what's happening

[plashadpobedy]

Good to be back...

This board is perfection. Absolutely nutin going on here, which is good.

What's on the agenda, plash? What's good? Those solars look mighty tastey?

Are we gonna hit news highs for the year?

Let the inwesting begin....

[farooq]

I am long SPY so take my post with grain of salt, may be bucket of salt, LOL.
I see SPY around 130 by mid October. You heard it right.

[ckg]

S2 shame on you to suck in people and when your advice does not pan out you leave...wow....btw thank god I never took your advice after MRVL. ( I do not blame you for my losses though) just pissed at you to not come back until the buzzards were circling... Everyone should be responsible for their own trades, but when you portray "wisdom" at least get back online and say SELLLLLLLLLL when you should and then LEAVEEEEEEEE. Immaturity comes to mind now. Hope you still have SOL calls pal, but more than likely you only told other people to buy them and then dissapeared again.

Respectfully,
Craig

[plashadpobedy]

No, it hasn't. U'r here.

[goofyfoot]

This board has been abandoned.

[plashadpobedy]

I got out of the market in July 2010.

I was not watching the board in Nov-Dec 2010. S2's lost a lot of people a lot $$s by his "recs". They are often based on someone's obsolete macro theory of the markets. He always seems to rec a stock just before it's tanks big-time. Let's just call it bad luck.

The yahoo SOL board is buying this bargain stock and it hasn't even bottomed yet. Others are claiming it's been the victim of "naked short selling" (per a CNBC video). Even if that were true, it makes no difference. SOL's break of it's support at $8.50 was catastrophic (as we can see now). Did S2 come on the board & rec dumping it then? He was no where to be found.

The coming end of QE2 has figured heavily in to the market's recent fall. Do S2's market projections consider the cessation of FED stimulus in the market going forward? Are they being made with QE3 as a certainty?

This market (at this level, we've only dropped about 6%) is "only" fueled by the FED's cheap dollars. More stimulus, market goes up, no stimulus, market goes down.

All S2's macro theories are just that, theories. A theory is just a supposition based on previously accepted principles. The "market profile" is constantly changing. Right now, it's not Pring, or Lynch, or Buffett, it's "The FED", and nothing else.

[robanson]

That's ridiculous, I've been here since MRVL and lurk almost daily. I rarely post 'cause I rarely have anything of substance to say, so I don't. And yeah, I dig S2 and appreciate what he's trying to do here. I also find it it anoying how you use his board to reguarly point out how things aren't going as he predicted in a very juvenile manner (ha, ha...told you so!) Kinda reminds me of my kids when they were younger. It dosen't diminish S2's credibility, it just annoys his loyal followers.

I hope you shorted SOL, MNKD & OREX and made a mountain of cash. If you saw it coming tell us how we can use your insight.

[SyndicateTwo]

Look, I hear ya. I make my living mostly daytrading futures. In and out. Picking swing trades is very difficult over the long term because there are so many things that affect why a stock is worth something today and then not tomorrow.

As for SOL, what happened here is that the glut of polysilicon due to the expanded ramp in production to meet Italian and German subsidies is just now being realized in terms of lower selling prices. SOL has been the biggest 'go to' trade for the professional investors because they are the most proficient and cheapest producer out there. So, there are larger positions to sell in it than the others. LDK is a 'glamor' solar stock that only the puny investors trade in because it's the best known. Large investors don't get involved with companies that are owned over 50% by one person like LDK is. But that works for you when things get ugly because as long as that person doesn't sell, it puts a limit on the downside.


Now for the market in general, which is what I'm better at rather than specific stocks, we are now most likely experiencing a 4th wave bounce which should stop at around SPX 1300 to 1320 max. A break above that changes things. But this rally should fail around here and then lead to a final 5th wave decline around SPX 1250ish to 1220 max on the downside.

That then sets up an interesting situation. The ideal scenario is for a big rally to new highs if only for the reason of this being the 3rd year prez cycle which is typically the largest year of the 4 year prez cycle. As of today, the market is up 2% I think for the year. It should end the year at least 7 to 12%.

But be careful worrying about SOL. SOL will easily double and possibly triple by year end if they support anywhere near their last guidance. Aug earnings is going to be a biggy.

[plashadpobedy]

Dead-board.......

Funny how stocks that have horrendous tanks seem to follow S2?

SOL, per the squeeze up this morning...is down $ .15/sh or -3.25% to $4.46/sh. But, per the yahoo SOL board there are still some that can't believe their stock is trash, and are holding.

Today, looks like one of the last squeezes of QE2. We're banging up against many resistances. Consumer staple stocks are flat today, but the oilies are in full bull-mode (except USO).

Well, things look in order here.

U take care

[poor_user]

About Robanson = S2...I know. And the new alias was born only a few months after these boards were started.

Yikes, it is hard to believe it has been that long ago now. Wow, time flies.

[plashadpobedy]

From the yahoo SOL board....SOL's been manipulated.

Apparently, stock manipulation has brought SOL down...OMG!!!!

"I filed an SEC complaint today concerning those MM, hedge funds, and investment banks who have been manipulating this stock downwards to create margin calls to force the sale of long shares for them to cover some of their naked short sales.

I believe Scottrade and TD Ameritrade is part of the fraud working in collusion with the investment banks (i.e. MMs) to manipulate this stock and several other Chinese solar stocks to force margin call sales.

This price manipulation corruption in the US Stock Market needs to stop. The SEC needs to enforce fraud, naked short selling, and stock price manipulation schemes in Chinese stocks."

Why would anyone buy SOL on margin when the stock's been dropping. I just gotta know.

[plashadpobedy]

Robanson = S2

This has been suggested by bbqporkwings. I looked back at posting up to last December. This "robanson" is just too enamored with "our S2" and his "good stuff". His postings end in January.

S2 was pumping (2) recs in Dec 2010. One was MNKD & OREX. They were pumped close to their final top. Previously, robanson's last post was in March. Why all of a sudden, does he show up? Kinda of makes U wonder if robanson is not our conveniently absent stock mavin.

Now, let's look what happened to those (2) wonder stocks of S2 post-December 2010:

MNKD: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MNKD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18126888649

OREX: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OREX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81430761428

OREX down 85%!!!

MNKD down 60%!!!

Those are pretty nice looking charts. Noticed how they dropped 50% in one day. There was no getting out of those without a massive loss.

As for S2..."Thanks, sir, may I have another."

My objections to SOL have already been stated and not (yet) replied to. SOL, and other solars speak for themselves. Look at any of their charts. So far, no answer from our stock mavin. S2 to panders a lot to obsolete TA paradigms, which are now next to useless and certainly downright ridiculous to use as an investment strategy.

Bash S2...awh gee, I'm sorry. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.

[poor_user]

I think the best way to counter what Plash is saying is make good trades. The opposite of what has been happening for a LONG TIME.

I have been around since MRVL on the yahoo boards and have seen a ton of bad calls so stopped really paying attention to what is said anymore on this or other boards. The only thing I have learned is that the charts, etc are completely BS. And I have to laugh at all the excuses that have been thrown around all these years on how/why this stuff is wrong at the time. Talking as if it is a phase that it will snap out of. What a joke.

I had to laugh too...I came back here just now to see if Plash posted anything for me...I then see this...more bad trades happening.

I guess what I am trying to say is it just seems as if stocks are just being pumped. That is just not right. So Plash is most likely making sure no one else falls into this trap. And those posts sure make the point clear so the new comers will not miss it. That is a good thing.

[plashadpobedy]

Plash..you're a complete idiot....

SOL is good as gold. It's Monday, 20 June, and SOL is down another -7.305% or -$ .26/sh to $4.57/sh.

It's even beating out JASO on the down-side.

R U adding today? Or are U waiting for the first bounce? Don't miss the boat here, bubba.

[plashadpobedy]

This is an open forum....

Anyone can say what they want. S2 doesn't follow up on his recs. Anyone can be wrong, of course, we all have bad trades.

When the market is clearly dumping solars, he's still rec'ing a falling knife. This one has dropped 50% since he first rec'd it and he's still rec'ing it! Just like the old MRVL.

So far, there's been no retort from our leader.

Dead-board, just like SOL.

[robanson]

Dude, while you sometimes post a usefull, informative post your bashing of S2's recommendations (and S2 personally) are annoying. Anyone who has been a follower of S2 has learned way more about trading and the markets than on any other discussion board. Usually your posts are spitefull and pathetic...find some other board to bash or offer an insightfull, intelligent counterpoint to what S2 is trying to do here. Even if he only posts about once a month.

[plashadpobedy]

SOL takes out $5 level....

"Holly-moelly, Batman...what's going on with SOL?"

"Donno, Robin, it must be the Joker creating havoc in the solars?"

The joke's on anyone who went long SOL. 50% losses, nummy?

Now, $4.88/sh. Say, "Good-bye", Mr. $5s, Hello, Mr.$4s, How ya doing?"

Should I dollar-cost-avg here or not? Decisions, decisions......

[plashadpobedy]

Oh the humanity.....

SOL takes out $5/sh this afternoon. Me thinks, $4s are here for awhile (cough), till we go lower.

End of QE2 is working it's magic.

[plashadpobedy]

SOLAR...a sector to love...

Thursday am......

SPWRA drops again -4.76% ($ .84/sh) to $16.82. SPWRA are seeing their gains dissolve in front of their eyes as they discuss Total's "intentions"? It's too high-level for me?

SOL......now, @ $5.05 down 5.43% ($ .29). Looks like it's gonna take out ol' Mr. "5" soon, and he ain't so old .

Let's get on the SOL-train before it's too late. Woo woo, chugga chugga, woo woo............

With oil's drop, USO moves down into the $37s...bye bye $40s for awhile. Pushing me towards the 40% gain mark. I just can't afford solars.

STX (Seagate)..on schedule...dropping below $15/sh on it's way lower.

[plashadpobedy]

SPWRA....takes a bath

Last solar standing, down -15.58% today, over $3/sh. I no sooner mention it, and GS works it magic.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPWRA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19614167472

Maybe all the SPWRA bagholders waiting for Total to buy up the float will now jump over and buy SOL?

[plashadpobedy]

Oh my, how much money do we have to lose proving your recs are just plain lousy, and counter the trend.

The old market of Pring and others are gone. Have been for quite awhile. I tried to get through, Steidlmayer's "Trading with Market Profile" last year, but even that is now a dead paradigm. The market now moves on the "liquidity" infusions of the FED, which we believe is coming to an end at the end of June. Though, if the debt-ceiling is raised, it will be carte blanc for FED to start printing infinitum again. All those dollars will be needed by the PBGC. $Timmay said so.

As for SOL, it was junk at $9/sh, and it still is junk. All the solars are D.O.A. except SPWRA, Sunpower Corp., which Total bought in on and it gapped up 30%. I hear, recently, GS put a sell on it back to $14 now? There's no one left in this market to buy the solars. The same stocks are being jacked up and down to buoy the market.

SPWRA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPWRA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19614167472

The market is still dropping, with the lack of more stimulus forthcoming from the the FED. If you want to bet against the trend and buy some beat-up solar, as some kind of contorted value play, go ahead. Come back in the fall and tell how you did.

Last Friday, I hit +33% gain in my portfolio of $30K. Fell back some today on the miraculus reversal. As long as I stay away from your ridiculous recs, I'll be okay.

Present positions: (20) USO JUL11 PUTS, (22) CNQ SEPT11 PUTS, (8) STX SEPT11 PUTs.

[SyndicateTwo]

Okay, check this out ---

Two topics here - 1 being SOL which I'll get to in a minute. The first thing is Martin Pring. Who's heard of him? He's a legend in technical analysis. Well, here's what he says ---

The downside objective of the DOW is the low 8000's. However, NOT on this current decline. We 'should' get a big bounce possibly here to retest the highs of DOW 12700ish first. Double top and then that's all she wrote.

He's basically saying that later this year will be the beginning of (or continuation of - depending on your point of view) the current secular bear market which will be the final leg down. And it's THAT low you want to mortgage your house to buy and hold for the next 20 year bull market.

Okay, okay. Now that goes completely against nearly ALL consensus in the market if you watch CNBC on a regular basis. But we know thier track record. So, do with that what you will. So, again, it's bottom around here, rally into summer a tad to retest - or just go flat in a tight range, break down in the fall on lower GDP, then collapse 2012 into DOW 8000s, then buy at the end of next year.

As for SOL: let me just tell you what a gift you have here. The stock currently trades for near cash and even the gloomiest forcast calls for nearly $1.50 in EPS. If you pull up all the chinese solars, YGE, JASO, LDK, SOL, TSL, etc, they all have the same chart - a waterfall. To me that spells of a large fund or funds selling out without regard. Because most of these stocks have such low floats, a single large seller or two selling a basket of stocks within a sector they want out of can do this.

Now look at the opportunity presented -- for $195, you can buy 1 Jan $4 2012 call option that controls $525 worth of stock. Multiply that by 10 and you get less than $2k controlling over $5k of stock that gives you 7 months to just see your stock run over $5.95 before you make money.

Do you think SOL, based on all the fundamental reasons we've talked about, will trade in the next 7 months to say, $7? If so, then you'll see that $2k turn into $3k, or a 50% return. At $8, you double your money.

We all know who've been following it that the main and pretty much only reason for the decline in revs for all the companies has been the subsidy cuts in Germany and Italy. So, there is currently and temporarily an inventory glut leading to lower ASPs. But it's only temporary. That sets up for earning's suprises later this year.

So, I'd be a big buyer of those calls and then let the market run, watch it then fall with a TZA position, then wait to see TNA fall hopefully under $50 again. If so, we start averaging into TNA.

[plashadpobedy]

Goofy...those are some sad charts on LIWA, APWR, & GSI...

The market's walked away from the penny-stocks like the plague. The RUT's (Russell 2000) small caps are falling faster than the Dogs of the Dow type stocks. Consumer Staples also taking a hit (XLY):

RUT: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40081759771

XLY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY

Many of the big index stocks are still holding their necklines (for now) (i.e. JNJ, MMM, CVX, COP, etc.). The big boys keep jacking the multi-nationals to buoy the market, but still the SPYs are dropping ever so slowly. The SPY broke it's neckline at $129.50 on Thursday. I'd say it's headed to break it's 200 dma by the end of the month:

SPY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52154953063

The market's falling. There's isn't much more than 2 or maybe 3 sessions a stock will stay high, before filling 100% or more. If you don't get out by the end of the session, you can easily be trapped the next day when the stock's down in pre-market. Hold for bounce, or take the chance of getting trapped in a long that goes to a new low. It's the new market paradigm.

The problem is, that there is "not enough volatility" in the market, making day-trading really tedious. It's all HFT, with computers trying to scalp a few pennies off a stock. You can't make any ducats unless a stock moves. Unless you can trade in lots of 50K or 100K shares.

Before, when the market was going up, resistance didn't make any difference. Now, support doesn't make any difference. I wouldn't be "value-shopping" right now, unless you definitely think $Ben's gonna bring out QE3. We got some time before the $Timmay ultimatum will happen. The market's still falling in it's own crappy way.

[goofyfoot]

Plash, you're right, the stock is not the company. Something I keep forgetting.

I guess I need to really stop thinking about a company being worthwhile, and looking more at its chart, like newly said. For example, I've been looking at some Chinese stock charts, besides SOL. Stocks like LIWA, APWR, and GSI all have charts that show obvious down trends.

Those charts show that I could have said that almost each day in the past month was the bottom, and I'd have been wrong. They just keep going lower. Glad I seemed to have had enough self-control not to buy them.

I saw something on some blog tonight that said to never hold a stock overnight. I know some people do this kind of trading, but it really shows a total lack of trust in the market. As much as I hope it never comes to this, the market is becoming so volatile that maybe that might be a good policy. At least, everyone's losses would be smaller (maybe).

[Newly2b]

I don't play equities per se anymore (except in my IRA), only options, so I don't short. But I do sell naked options every day, which is how I ended up with that SPY short to begin with. Glad I was able to cover it and get out unscathed after nearly holding it 3 months! Whew!

Newly

[plashadpobedy]

Poor user.....

I am no longer a paid-member here, so I'll have to use the public reply.

I talked to my friend a day or two ago, and he's done $70,000 gross so far this year, selling those greenhouse kits. Not bad for a home business. Says he's also busy with local farmer's market sales. Surprising that in a slow-economy, people will pay so much for decorative plants.

Making those greenhouses is so simple. You can buy a bender for $35 (somebody invented a real cheap solution to that). The rest is just done with an abrasive cut-off saw and a very cheap bench drill press.
Craigslist.com ad costs him nothing. His front door is his cell phone. It's a real sweet business, if you can manage it.

[plashadpobedy]

It's been so long since I shorted anything, that I forgot about those dividend deductions in my account on open-shorts. Ouch.

[Newly2b]

I've been there, done that. Sometimes have to hit myself between the eyes with a 2X4 just to keep focused on some of this stuff, LOL.

I only happened to notice it because of an exercised naked call I sold leaving me with the short position in the stock, and with their ex-div coming up I had made a note to self to be sure to cover those shares prior to the ex-div date even if it meant taking a loss so I wouldn't be obligated to pay the dividend. As luck would have it, this little correction ensued and I was able to exit with a slight profit after holding that short position (@$129) for nearly 3 months.

Moral of this story? Sometimes it is better to be lucky than smart, LOL.

Newly

[plashadpobedy]

You're right. Forgot about that.

Thanks for correcting me.

[Newly2b]

A good play that can work is to short a stock just before it's ex-dividend date, It's more than likely to drop the amount of the dividend.

The only problem with that strategy is that you, the short-seller must pay the dividend amount to the buyer of the stock you sold. The original owner receives the dividend from the company, but the guy who bought from you also qualifies for the dividend, so you have to pay it to him. On top of that, if the stock price does not drop at least the amount of the dividend, you have lost both on the dividend and on the price. If anything, far, far better to buy rather than sell prior to ex-div date.

Newly

[plashadpobedy]

Goofy....it's a stock and not the thing itself.

SOL is a "stock" and not solar generation itself, and we shouldn't forget that. Somebody's walking away from SOL and the other solars. That's all I know (or want to know).

No one thought oil would go up to $112/bl this last time, especially against high-inventories, no shortages, and a sluggish economy, but it did. Must be "something" pushing it up?

For the short-term, I'd say things are still in a down-trend. If you have the margin and can watch the tape for the whole session, you can make some ducats with the futures. Harder to do now with options, which is why I wouldn't try and day-trade them and have to go with the intermediate trend.

A good play that can work is to short a stock just before it's ex-dividend date, It's more than likely to drop the amount of the dividend.

The govt. is now all special-interest driven, both for the Repubs and the Demos. They are all at the trough. My guess is that, Mish Shedlock may be right (I hope not), and the debt-ceiling will be raised without, but a token of cuts. Then, a trillion or so ducats can flow into the PBGC to jam the fake-economy market up to new highs again. The dollar will drop below $72, and we'll have inflation like you've never seen before. If people liked the last couple of years, they're gonna love the next two even better.

SOL may be a $50 stock by the end of summer?

[poor_user]

Hey Plash, you will have to let me know what happens with your friend's business. They might have a hard time selling it though. Things like this most of the time just take a good handy person to make them. I am one such person and will be building my own greenhouse at some point. This year was about the garden area. Eventually I will build this as an attachment to it.

Thanks for the info though.

[goofyfoot]

Plash, I looked at solars as a plausible way to create electricity. Somehow, I bought in. I guess because I really do surf and see the degradation of water quality (sometimes air) up close and, well, you know...

Financially, I guess I always tried to believe that a company's reports were to be believed. With P/Es of 3 or 4, most Chinese solars seemed ridiculously undervalued Yet, their profits were always judged on a different scale. An unfair scale, unless there is some truth to the rumors...

Never considered that solar energy stocks were, collectively, at a low point and that POMO would float even these boats.

I do believe that there is no interest in solars, right now. Yet, in the very short term, all of these stocks are oversold, technically. Still, no telling which way they go.

Personally, I don't believe that the Republicans are smart enough to back off and all the debt-ceiling to rise before, well, really, several days before August 2nd. They want something very extreme that would destroy, not only the stock and bond markets, but almost our entire economy. After six months it would, anyway.

[plashadpobedy]

I've never liked the solars...

I've always thought they were way over-valued and that they should be down with the attendant housing market. I believe that, solar only represents about .01 of all the energy produced. Even with govt home-subsidies on solar, how many will want to invest more in a home that's dropping in value? I suppose it depends on your geographic location? In an area where I am from, most all the electricity is hydro-electric (Washington). It's not as heavily effected by raises in other energies. Seattle owns their own generating plants and water supply. And Grand Coulee's NE of me.

I wasn't particularly interested in solar, but did recognize (at the time) SOL was bouncing off a support area. But it was all pomo, and a precursor to further dumping of the stock (among others). I also had some JASO, but dumped it for a small profit early on.

There's no (big) money chasing the solars right now. Big-time, Cramer fav, FSLR dropped precipitously today almost -3%. Any pump will be lucky to last 2 sessions before it fills 100%. There's no one left to sucker. There's no financial warfare on solars, it's just D.O.A.

The market is still selling-off as the end of QE2 approaches. Solars are just among the weakest sectors. If I had had the margin, I'd have shorted SOL when it broke $9/sh for the last time.

I read today (per Mish Shedlock's site) that he believes the Repubs will relent and allow the debt-ceiling to rise by or before the August default. But the bond market will want to extract a higher cost (interest) to finance the continued folly, so $Ben would have to raise interest rates on his buds. Raising interest rates should put a damper on this "bull market", but it's hard to say.

I am still short oil (CNQ & USO) and recently, STX. June should still be a "down-month". I'll then, have to decide whether to dump my July puts before any pre-expiration squeeze. On CNQ & STX, I am out to Sept. Solar is still a falling knife as is STX. Oil's been a tougher nut, but I am hoping it falls off it's ledge this month.

[goofyfoot]

Hey SOLman, uh, I mean Plash, LDK reports pretty good earnings but warns on Q2 revenue, and the whole sector (if you can call Chinese solars a sector) goes to hell. SOL seems to like to take it right on the chin and after it gets hit really hard, right where it counts, it holds it back up and says, "I double-dare ya'!"

Man, I thought I'd owned some losers before, but this one deserves first place with a tiara and a sash! I did sell about two-thirds of my solars on that last little bounce a couple of weeks ago, so, at least I kind of worked some of the loss out.

Anyway, do you think, maybe, that Chinese solars have been inflated in price (yet their P/Es are less than 3, in most cases) by over exuberant investors (including hedge funds) and now they're just going back to their appropriate values?

Or, do you think there is some sort of clandestine financial warfare going on against Chinese stocks of all sorts, partly due to the fraudulent ones, partly due to some anticipated benefit to US stocks due to the downfall of Chinese stocks (zero sum game)?

Or, sorry to task you this way, do you think that everything is just going down the drain (double-dip) and that Chinese solars are just the canary in the silicon mine?

I really haven't lost that much, and if I sell now, I'm still positive for the year (good thing I made some money on other stocks). But, you know, it's getting pretty bleak.

[plashadpobedy]

I'm a SOLman.....

SOL dropped below $6.00/sh this morning. Not like it was unexpected. Would have been a great short at $9.00+. Wish I'd had the margin.

My STX puts went into the money this am. That one's being slowly dumped. Hit a new low this am. For $3/put, and a delta of over .7, it's a little money machine.

[plashadpobedy]

I understand the market now.....

Last year, when I sunk to a low in margin (I went from $935K high to a $130K low), I got out last July. I happen to be reading the SPY board and some guys were discussing the market and why it would keep going up. The point one of the posters was making was that the only thing that makes a difference in the market is "Liquidity". Cheap dollars (in this case, the FED dollars, backed by the all-day suckers, the taxpayers), has fueled the lofty market we now have and nothing else! When the cheap dollars go away (end of QE1), the market falls. When you understand that one factor, you have a good chance of being on the right-side of the trade.

I wish I had understood that at SPX 666. The cheap poker chips are going away with the end of QE2, so the market is now falling again.

I had to drop out of nursing in the Philippines and returned to the US in Sept. 2010. I get free-rent at my brother's warehouse in Yakima, WA. I am enrolled in pre-nursing now, but my memory is shot at 62. It's really hard for me to remember things now, especially the stuff I have to read for pre-nursing. I am in class with kids that aren't even 18 yet. In Subic Bay, I had 16 y.olds as classmates. Geesh.

I see you are in to gardening. I'm not, but I have a friend who has been in the nursery business for over 20 years. He sold his nursery in CA and moved back to WA a few years ago and did some country market stuff part of the time. When he was in the nursery business, he used a number of plastic quansit huts to grow in. He decided to fabricate the kits for small ones for home-growers, and he's been doing a gang-buster business. He mostly advertise for free on Craigslist.com in WA. When I saw him in March, he had already grossed $50K (sold about 40 kits since January). He should do over $100K in 2011. The drawback is that they are too expensive to ship (via truck), because of the size of the poles and plastic. He wants to sell the business. Here's a link to his online page: http://www.stevesgreenhouses.com/

Very high margin on this stuff (over 50%). The tubing is just fence tubing and comes from Home Depot. The fabrication only requires a drill press, a chop saw, and a bender. So simple!!!

[poor_user]

You will find in time that stops are just one of many things which can be used to make you look like a fool.

I know, because I have been there. For years I was there. :)

[poor_user]

Yikes, Plash. I am very sorry to hear that.

The financial collaspe and rebound taught me a lot too. It was then I realized that no one has any anwers and the charts, analysts, ETC are meanless/useless. I felt this way a little before the financial collapse and years of seeing people fail with their calls, etc. Now I see the writing on the wall.

And I hope the nursing thing works out for ya.

It is amazing how my whole perspective on life has changes over the last few years. All the money I was saving and all the investing/trading I was doing seems meanless to me now. I long for a simple life. I started a garden this year. And I love it. I guess I got burnt out with all the trading and looking at the screen all day long. Now I long to get out in the yard and run my hand thru the dirt. :) So relaxing for the spirit it seems.

[plashadpobedy]

Bought STX (Seagate) puts.....

Bought (8) STX SEPT11 $18 PUTS in the last hour of trading for an avg. cost of $3.03. Last Friday, they were going for about $2.79.

STX is past it's dividend, and it looks like it's got nothing to live for. Looks at least good for an excursion below it's 200dma @ $14. But maybe a fill down to $10 by Sept? It looks like STX is slowly sinking. Below it's $16 level, the next support level is about $13/sh.

STX 15-MONTH CHART: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46321012737

I also considered DIS, but this looks better and was a bunch cheaper to play.

[Newly2b]

use other people's trades as just pointers to stocks that I normally wouldn't have heard about

That is exactly what I do, troll the boards for trading ideas, then look at the chart and if it meets my criteria for entry I proceed; if not, I move on. I don't do F/A on the stocks I trade (I actually mainly trade options these days), that way I don't get influenced by what the company does or how well they do it, LOL. The chart tells me everything I need to know. . .

Newly

[goofyfoot]

After initially following someone else's trades a couple of times (and not getting out at the peak, thinking whatever it was would go much higher), I started to use other people's trades as just pointers to stocks that I normally wouldn't have heard about. So, I kind of learned that lesson.

Suppose my biggest trading problem is that sometimes I'll get in at what I think is a low and then begin to really like what the company does, prove to myself that the stock is undervalued, and hang on through bitter dips until I totally lose faith that the stock will ever come back. Don't do this as often as I used to, but I still treat certain stocks this way, or maybe those stocks treat me this way. Can't figure it out. Ha!

[plashadpobedy]

It's better S2 read it.....

I already bought most of my positions the beginning of May, saying oil stocks/crude would fall. I'm still holding.

As for the solar sector, our SOL has now dropped in to the $6s, as predicted. You should be able to buy it in the $5s before the end of June, if you really want a dead-stock?

The big boys are walking. We are coming up on 3 pops off support and no big lasting pop. Looks like things are going to drop out of support. 50 dmas are looking like strong resistance, if that's the word?

They are slowly walking on utilities. My D (Dominion) dropped below $47 today with a token bottom of $46.55 (a previous top). Break the $46.55 level and it's really sayonara.

Things usually gap up before things fall precipitously. Tuesday may have been the precursor to a yet-to-come break of support?

[MRVLReader]

One more reading for you...
Why the bulls are set up for a fall in June
...http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bulls-are-set-up-for-a-fall-in-june-2011-06-01

and

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-twice-before-jumping-into-tech-2011-06-01?link=MW_story_insert

[plashadpobedy]

SPY vs. TLT (20 YR TREASURY) & their 50dmas

I've been following this poster on the yahoo SPY board and what he says makes a lot of sense. You can see it in the charts (links below).

Here's a paste of what I pasted on the yahoo USO board:

"A poster on the SPY board pointed out the inverse relationship between the SPY & TLT (20yr treasury), in particular, their 50dmas.

It would appear that TLT & SPY are diametrically opposed and the 50dma of each is highly significant.

In May of 2010, TLT's 50dma turned north and headed up until late August of 2010 (it's top).

TLT 2010: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D...

SPY 2010: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69566991270

At TLT's top (end of Aug 2010), the SPY started to head up after crossing it's 50dma. About 5 weeks later, about the 1st week of Oct 2010, TLT broke south of it's 50dma and headed down, as SPY headed up.

Per this "bearish" poster, we are at the crossroads now. He's previously pointed out the rollover into bonds and the movement out of stocks (which has been going on since early April).

Here's a paste of his post:

Re: you can tell who trades 1-Jun-11 07:54 pm

It's just the 50 with a comparison to the 50 on the TLT.

When a certain pattern hits the 2 you go short the SPY when you get the opposite, you go long the SPY pro's use it all the time it never fails but takes great patients.

Only about 3 signals per year. Takes guts to pull the trigger.

Sentiment : Strong Sell
Rating :

penystoc

[Newly2b]

The reason coattailing someone else's trades doesn't work is because you cannot read their mind. They usually don't tell you where they've placed their stoploss or where they intend to take profits, nor their timeframe for the trade, plus by the time they have posted the trade, they are already in, and if they got the direction right, your entry will not be as good.

I never enter stops unless I will be away from my desk because, like you, I have seen too many times when the MM swoops down, collects my shares, and moves the price right back up. I do, however, always know the price point at which I consider the trade has 'gone wrong', and set an alert on my platform at that point, then reevaluate and sell the shares if necessary. Works for me.

Newly

[goofyfoot]

Naw, no worries! But, you're right, I can read something that someone wrote on a message board, someone who for whatever reason I've decided to believe is credible, and occasionally, I act on what they've said. I've lost this way as often as I've won, well, maybe I've lost a little more.

I guess my biggest problem is that, once I get into a stock, for whatever reason, I don't set stops. I used to and inevitably my stock would spike low, trip my stop, my shares would be gone, and then fly back up. Man, that used to make me feel like a fool!

Since then, though, I've gone for some sad rides downward, smokin' the hopium all the way. Ugh.

[plashadpobedy]

Things could be better......

Lost my wade in the squeeze of 2009 & 2010.

I returned to the US in Sept. 2010. I'm enrolled in a pre-nursing program at a comm. college. It's a bitch. I'm 62. I can't remember anything like I used to. Be another year before I can even get into the nursing program if I make it. Openings are tight due to the demand and the State's cutbacks for colleges.

I was up $8K-$9K, but this latest bounced squeezed out a lot of my gains. The $3K loss on SOL didn't help. Guess I should have covered at any support level, but the market likes like it's on the way down.

[poor_user]

Did not mean to say you were blaming anyone. I was just saying that some people may make a trade based off of what others are saying without even realizing it. It is almost how advertising works on the subconscious. You may not want a pizza now, but you will later and then remember the advertisement. :) Influence can come from anywhere at anytime. Just be aware it is happening and it will make you a better person. Anyway, not saying you a bad person. I am just thowing this out there to help. Cool?