Replies to post #114584 on Biotech Values

[pcrutch]

I just want to revisit this post for minute to get the board's feedback.

Dew: I would expect that a MNTA collaboration to develop and commercialize one or more FoB’s for the US market would have the following features:

• $40-75M of up-front cash per compound.

• A roughly 50/50 split of development costs.

• Full payment by partner of commercialization costs.

How many compounds do you suspect Momenta is going to want a partner to sign on for upfront? It seems fairly clear that Wheeler et al. wants someone who is all in on their program. They want a partnership across the platform, not just one candidate. I'd venture to guess the upfront payments would have to be sufficiently large for Momenta to accept, considering they'd want to significantly scale up their development capabilities in order to undertake such a broad partnership. Is $150-200m upfront for 3-4 compounds initially with options for others?

In regards to M118, do you still think a deal somewhere in $50-75m upfront would be reasonable?

If the short interest remains the level it is currently at(9.6M as of 4/15), either of these deals would certainly set off some very big fireworks. Frankly, I am amazed that the short interest is so high.