Replies to post #118981 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA—Is $150-200M upfront for 3-4 [FoB] compounds initially with options for others [reasonable]?

Four FoB compounds is probably too many to take on at once, even with a big-name partner; two or possibly three compounds is more realistic, IMO.

In regards to M118, do you still think a deal somewhere in $50-75M upfront would be reasonable?

That sounds wildly optimistic considering the length of time the program has been lying fallow. Consistent with the comments in #msg-57621347, if an M118 partnership is not announced in the next month or so, I will ascribe zero value to the program.

[rkrw]

I wouldn't look for much of anything "upfront" unless it were an equity purchase. This is how the Novartis deal for copaxone was structured. Novartis paid $75M upfront but they got equity. Biogenerics are too expensive to expect novel drug like deals with whopper upfront payments. I would expect something similar to the copaxone deal or modestly less upfront, likely in equity, or much smaller non-equity (say $25M) plus milestone payments and 50/50 profit split. If 4 compounds, I would expect far less upfront than your assumption since chances are Momenta has yet to fully characterize all 4. Full characterization plus substantial progress on manufacturing would be worth more as much of the initial risk would be mitigated.