Replies to post #113498 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

The $170M in sales was impacted by channel stuffing in Q3

that's what i think, but that is not what NVS management implied in the Q&A

[jbog]

10nisman,

The $170M in sales was impacted by channel stuffing in Q3.

If you discount the $2.8B Lovenox market by 17% (which was assumed to be the net sales discount) you arrive at a $2.3B market. 40% share of this market = $929 million vs. mL's current annualized run-rate of $924 million ($462 million x 2). I think its fair to assume mL sales will end up running near a $1 billion run-rate in 2011 based on sole generic (higher with further market share gains).

I think you're going to be surprised. Channel stuffing probably had a minor effect on the 4th quarter results. The run rate is probably much closer to $750m/$800m at this point.