Biotech Values

[10nisman]

this doesn't add up - if a 40% market share translates to 170M per quarter, then it means the entire US lovenox market is worth 1.7B, down from around 2.8B. that implies no growth and 40% price discount. it doesn't make sense even if you figure SNY is not discounting significanty (bringing total US market up some), or if the 40% is a volume metric and they are selling more of the lower unit syringes. NVS said it, but i don't get it

The $170M in sales was impacted by channel stuffing in Q3.

If you discount the $2.8B Lovenox market by 17% (which was assumed to be the net sales discount) you arrive at a $2.3B market. 40% share of this market = $929 million vs. mL's current annualized run-rate of $924 million ($462 million x 2). I think its fair to assume mL sales will end up running near a $1 billion run-rate in 2011 based on sole generic (higher with further market share gains).

10nis