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Re: 10nisman post# 113498

Friday, 01/28/2011 3:01:37 PM

Friday, January 28, 2011 3:01:37 PM

Post# of 257302
10nisman,

The $170M in sales was impacted by channel stuffing in Q3.

If you discount the $2.8B Lovenox market by 17% (which was assumed to be the net sales discount) you arrive at a $2.3B market. 40% share of this market = $929 million vs. mL's current annualized run-rate of $924 million ($462 million x 2). I think its fair to assume mL sales will end up running near a $1 billion run-rate in 2011 based on sole generic (higher with further market share gains).



I think you're going to be surprised. Channel stuffing probably had a minor effect on the 4th quarter results. The run rate is probably much closer to $750m/$800m at this point.

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