Replies to post #10462 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[value1008]

Fernando, since we've already posted EPS of .80 and .81 for Q2 and Q3, and most folks like Dan, et al. are estimating Q4 2010 (even after figuring some startup expenses for Switow in Q4) is likely to come in with 0.85 EPS minimum, then even if Q1 2011 is just the same 0.85 amount (figuring more Switow expenses and other expenses such as tour bus startup costs, etc.), that puts us at ttm EPS 3.31.

So why drop the estimate to a "doable 3.20" and not a "doable 3.30"?

Just curious....

[RyanW439]

It seems like it should be tough to maintain the quarterly EPS from Q4 to Q1 because of the earn outs, but with the price increases coming in Q1 along with the extra 2690 i/c buses and 151 airport buses added between Dec 1 and Jan 1, it's going to end up looking easy, IMO.

They've added 10%+ to their inter-city network between Dec 1 and Jan 1 (2690 new/26400 prior); they'll get the benefit of 10-15% in price increases (this alone should nearly cover the extra 17.4% earn-out share dilution), and they've added ~30% (151 new/500 prior to these) to the airport bus network..

Start up costs on SWITOW is the only X-factor that could hinder stellar growth in Q1..


New contracts announced since November:

623 I/C buses starting Jan 1, Henan Province

101 Airport Buses Shuangliu In't A/P starting Jan 1
50 A/P buses Shijiazhuang Zhengding A/P, starting Jan 1

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-4247208019.html?x=0&.v=1

635 I/C buses starting Dec 1, Henan Province
1432 I/C buses starting Jan 1, Hunan Provence

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-to-Add-bw-3088971815.html?x=0&.v=1