Replies to post #10463 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[Drexion2004]

A number of reasons for my $3.2 "expectation" for TTM after Q1 2011 results:

1) We simply do not know how much the switow/tour-bus startup costs will be. The company has also been doing some brand-building events like the BMW tennis one, etc.
2) I am assuming the 2010 earn-out will be allocated in Q1 2011 to be conservative.
3) I am not counting any currency gains (which will be there for sure)
4) I am not counting any buyback.
5) Q1 is seasonally the weakest quarter.

The fact is, $3.2 is the point where I become "disappointed" if we cannot beat. I certainly believe we can come in higher than that, I just refuse to *expect* it.

Expectations are a dangerous game, look at BSPM this year for example. People had such high expectations that many here dropped the stock completely when those lofty dreams were not realized. Funny how people can be disappointed by 40%+ revenue growth but there you have it (Will be 50%+ when Q4 is reported for BSPM).

I guess i'm like the analysts on this subject, I like to put out numbers I am sure we can beat =).

I'm looking for $3.5-$3.6 EPS for 2011...Hard to say for 2012 this early on but I think we hit $4.5 EPS there without too much trouble.

-Fernando