Replies to post #10464 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[Shermadog]

I doubt management will get the earn out shares any faster this year then they did last year. Last year the earn out shares where issued on August 13th 2010. Why would the earnout shares be earned much earlier than that. Sure maybe a month or so, but I really doubt we will see any chance of earnouts being issued before 3rd Quarter.

If that is the case the weighted shares for the whole year won't be as high as most expect.

[RyanW439]

Does anyone see my Q4 to Q1 numbers as unlikely? With an additional 10% added to the I/C bus network, plus 15% price increase would lead to would increase numbers 26.5%.. margins would be the same, as te concessions would grow in tandem with ASP's. Airport bus network has 30% increase in network size, plus ~15% in price increases would lead to roughly 49% in airport rev's and NI. This mix should lead to at least 26% Q/Q growth as the two key revenue streams sould be growing at probably close to 30% weighted average between the two. SWITOW costs may ramp slightly, but not a great deal from the Q4 startup costs, IMO.. Poke holes at will..it seems like this analysis is too simple, but sometimes simple is the best approach.