Replies to post #73871 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[go-kitesurf]

buffetguy, I have worked pretty hard on a spreadsheet to try and accurately predict the mean-revenue-line for Wave for the next few quarters based on Wave's prospects, DD, timelines, etc. My forecast for Q4 was $180,000 with the $300,000 deferred, putting the total at $500,000 (my prediction for Q4). I was high. The revenues were $110,000 with $351,000 deferred at Q4, a total of $469,000.

I have since adjusted the Q4 and forward-looking Q1-05, Q2-05, and Q3-05 estimates to arrive at $111k for Q4 (close enough) to get a trend on the shipment and adoption. This doesn't include any WXP/SOL revenues, of course.

This was 500 seats of ETS and 50 seats of KTM direct sales with a 0.2% Intel motherboard bundle ratio. 80 seats ETS upgraded from pro2.1 to 3.3 with a few KTM Server AD sales. For Q1, after the holidays, I expect these to change due to more marketing, lipservice, and the shows (RSA/IDF, etc). Seems this is all anyone in IT is talking about (hardware security).

Looking at the revenue streams:

Dell - Q1(0.2%), Q2(1.0%), Q3(4.0%)
Intel - Q1(1.0%), Q2(2.0%), Q3(5.0%)
Direct ETS sales - Q1(700), Q2(1000), Q3(1200)
Direct KTM sales - Q1(100), Q2(200), Q3(300)
KTM Server AD - Q1(3), Q2(5), Q3(8)
IBM/HP upgrade - Q1(130), Q2(240), Q3(360)

I come up with $400k for next quarter Q1 + deferred. I hope it to be somewhere in the $800k range approaching a million.

For 2005, its hard to predict based on STMicro design wins, HP and IBM upgrades, TPM1.2 coming, Intel motherboard lineup will hopefully increase, etc etc etc. But...a very very preliminary look forecasts 2005 out to be around $13.0M for my spreadsheet with Wave having a $6.7M quarter for Q4 of 2005. So most of the revenues will come in Q3 and Q4, with Q4 responsible for roughly half the entire year's revenues. I don't agree with the $40M revenue statements, and figure if its going to happen, it would be a great year for Wave. I like to think conservatively and I think these numbers are very achievable for Wave. But of course, this is a spreadsheet that I concocted to help me, and only me, judge this investment. It is not to be taken as any investment advice. I'm just using it as a toy to play with.