Replies to post #108789 on Biotech Values

[10nisman]

MNTA

A 10 year old would understand that, but people on this board are telling me the the market is pricing MNTA efficiently. That defies common sense.

So if the market doesn't price a company efficiently every day of the year the market is corrupt? Remember 1999 and the .com bubble when companies were priced at ridiculous multiples. Was the market corrupt or just plain stupid (inefficient, irrational, etc.)? I go with stupid and completely irrational. Fast forward two years and the market become smarter and eliminated most of the insanity.

In MNTA's case... it was trading at $30 in 2005 and as low as $5 in late 2008. Were those prices being manipulated or driven by investors who were unduly optimistic and then unduly fearful? Looking at MNTA's current share price we have a group of longs (myself included) that think MNTA is worth a lot more than the current share price and a group of shorts that think the opposite. Fast forward 12-18 months and I'm sure we'll know who was right.

10nis

[jq1234]

That defies common sense.

You expect the market to have common sense all the time. You'll never get it. Market is composed of so many different people, some of them have common sense, some don't, and at any particular moment, everyone could lose common sense. This is the market. So you explore the moment when it doesn't make sense, and wait for common sense to come back. Whining about the market is not behaving the way you want is the most common occuring everywhere. It doesn't do any good.

[vinmantoo]

<This is precisely my point. The market is irrational undervaluing MNTA on the mere threat of a impending lawsuit. A lawsuit would guarantee MNTA 5-$6 EPS as the sole generic for at least 2-3 years, because the FDA will not get scared into approving TEVA's generic. The stock was trading at $16.5 a few weeks before approval, now under a sole generic (best case) scenario (with hundreds of millions pouring in) its trading at $15... huh... that smells fishy to me. >

I believe you are looking at the herd mentality and mistaking it for some grand plan.