I think most of the time the market is very logical, but most never understand the logic of it.
If a lot of owners of MNTA bought all they could afford to buy of MNTA, and if they bought calls, used margin, why they represent weak shareholders. Any downturn will force them out. If you all in and on cash, then you don't really count either, since you can't buy more, all you can do is sell.
If the market knows that there isn't going to be any positive events for 12 months, sell the spikes and buy back as it drifts down again. Doesn't matter about the valuation, the big boys all play from the same playbook.
If you think of it like guerrilla warfare it all makes more sense. Even if you know your side will win doesn’t mean you can’t get killed in a skirmish. Ttading is all about who wins the fight each day, not which side will win in some distant future date.
Investing is more about the long term, but investors shouldn't be using the tools traders use, extreme margin in one from or another.
Just my 2 bits, it's really difficult to tell if there really is some future negative event for MNTA, doesn't look like it to me. Stocks that haven't achieved market dominance but have very promising technology usually behave like this. We could all relate stories of the ups and downs for stocks that in the end went sky high.
But MNTA is a biotech and they are prone to surprises of all types. I think the odds are 80/20 that the stock is undervalued and will be much higher in a few years.
ciao, I am off to the gym.
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