Replies to post #103739 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ZGEN—Your opinion would be wrong. Approvals in three markets for HBV/HCV are likely to have taken up 90% of the milestones according to what we've been told.

Regardess of what you were told, considering HCV and HBV as a package makes no sense in this context. According to ZGEN’s own disclosures, $287M of the clinical/regulatory milestones pertain to non-HCV indications, and it’s doubtful, IMO, that this amount would have been paid. Why? Because interferon treatment for HBV is a non-starter for most hepatologists and is a highly questionable proposition from a business standpoint.

[jq1234]

I have to agree BMY did great deals for themselves in both MEDX and ZGEN buyout. I don't understand why the boards of both companies agree not to solicit other offers.

[dewophile]

ZGEN

ZGEN/BMY a dirty deal done dirt cheap

i haven't owned zgen as long as you have david, but i do have shares starting in the 15s. that said i'd be lying if i told you i wasn't happy about the deal (and after averaging down my large paper loss has turned into a decent profit)

you can argue the valuation ad nauseam, but as the saying goes - never look a gift horse in the mouth

the fact BMY is due out next with combo data on DAAs, and we now have 2 prior DAA combos that have warts (INFORM and IDIX) i have to wonder if the BMY data will disappoint as well - opening the door (again) for the notion that combinations of DAAs will take longer to materialize and interferon is likely to remain SOC for longer than many think

i'm curious what other long time holders like clark and tony think of the deal, but i am happy to put my zgen profits to work elsewhere at this point

[DewDiligence]

BMY axes Seattle development team acquired from ZymoGenetics:

http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2013/11/07/bristol-myers-whacks-clinical-team-zymogenetics-seattle-site/

BMY paid $735M in cash for ZGEN in 2010.