ZGEN—Your opinion would be wrong. Approvals in three markets for HBV/HCV are likely to have taken up 90% of the milestones according to what we've been told.
Regardess of what you were told, considering HCV and HBV as a package makes no sense in this context. According to ZGEN’s own disclosures, $287M of the clinical/regulatory milestones pertain to non-HCV indications, and it’s doubtful, IMO, that this amount would have been paid. Why? Because interferon treatment for HBV is a non-starter for most hepatologists and is a highly questionable proposition from a business standpoint.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”