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Re: AlpineBV_Miller post# 103739

Wednesday, 09/08/2010 2:16:18 PM

Wednesday, September 08, 2010 2:16:18 PM

Post# of 257580

ZGEN—Your opinion would be wrong. Approvals in three markets for HBV/HCV are likely to have taken up 90% of the milestones according to what we've been told.

Regardess of what you were told, considering HCV and HBV as a package makes no sense in this context. According to ZGEN’s own disclosures, $287M of the clinical/regulatory milestones pertain to non-HCV indications, and it’s doubtful, IMO, that this amount would have been paid. Why? Because interferon treatment for HBV is a non-starter for most hepatologists and is a highly questionable proposition from a business standpoint.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

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