Replies to post #103029 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

MNTA: A few are flat-out ignoring the obvious metrics: How large the US market is, and the fact that the sole generic in the capable hands of a Sandoz-like entity will garner a large fraction of that market.
IMO, everything else is mostly noise.

[zipjet]

Thus, the $40M number was presumably a lowball estimate that NVS thought was the minimum number they could use to make NVS’ counter-argument vis-à-vis irreparable harm credible to the judge.

The "$40M" came right after the shipment of 5M units into the channel. For all we know, the "$40M" was supply-constrained at the time - it may have been every unit available. Thus, a FACT was available that supported the argument that on-going sales would not cause irreparable harm.

I am surprised every time the $40M in six weeks is mentioned without the corresponding fact that 5M units were shipped on approval. Those 5M units* would sell for $266M at drugstore.com pricing.


ij

* That is for the 80mg dose which is the dose for the average weight adult (162F, 190M) 176lb at 1mg/kg. The $266M is a retail price so it must be reduced by the markup.

http://www.drugstore.com/pharmacy/prices/drugprice.asp?ndc=00781311968&trx=1Z5006

[jbog]

Dew,

At least we couldn't we use Sandoz's "Low Ball Estimate" which could put a floor on our sales expectations for the near future?

I'm not aware, but is this a area where IMS or someone has current sales data?