moving stops up another couple of bucks this evening. Not holding any calls now.
I did not, BTW, say the article would move a liquid, large cap stock. I did say:
"But that article, it could be generate some share buying."
But in the context of my post and my bullish stance, I can see how you may have concluded that I thought the article could cause significant movement in the stock. It is one more positive stacked on top of other positives, of that there can be no doubt.
Here is one thing about research and the scientific method. More often than not, the weight of evidence supporting one position or another comes from a variety of studies and data sources. That is why some researchers specialize in what is referred to as meta-analysis - an analysis of studies in an area in which each study becomes a subject in the meta-analysis - even if the original study had hundreds or thousands of subjects (a subject here is, for example, a person if it is a study of human behavior - it is not a subject in the common use of the word). Here is a concise definition:
Meta-analysis is essentially a synthesis of available [research] literature about a topic. Ideally, synthesis of randomized trials to arrive at a single summary estimate is used. Other types of studies are used for meta-analysis as well.
Applying meta-analytic logic to the current buzz about Apple - say to the revenue and earnings estimates of the 20 + analysts who cover Apple and the myriad anecdotal reports of activity at Apple retail outlets and the time-frame for delivery of new products to consumers who have recently ordered them, and a bunch of other stuff, one could conclude that the financial future looks bright for Apple Computer these days.
Are there any clouds on the horizon. Of course there are. Some of them not even related to stuff Apple may have much control over. But the future is undeniably looking bright. From my seat, a preponderance of evidence is pointing in that direction. The Fortune article is merely a manifestation of the straws leading to what may be a future tipping point.
One thing the article talks about is something you have been wont to discuss lately, the value of software to Apple. I thought of you when I read that.
So, it may not move the stock, but I'll betcha a cafecito that some people will read the article and then buy some shares, which is all my statment was about.
I wish I had more data to analyze, but as that one fella said - let me see if I can come up with his name - Simon, Herbert Simon - one of his big contributions was the notion of bounded rationality. We do not have all the data or all the resources to process it before a decision point is reached, so rationality is bounded by those limitations.
A related concept of his is that of satisficing. A concise defintion of that concept is:
to obtain an outcome that is good enough. Satisficing action can be contrasted with maximizing action, which seeks the biggest, or with optimising action, which seeks the best.
In recent decades doubts have arise about the view that in all rational decision-making the agent seeks the best result. Instead, it is argued, it is often rational to seek to satisfice i.e. to get a good result that is good enough although not necessarily the best.
The term was introduced by Herbert A. Simon in his Models of Man 1957
So, I am applying half-baked meta-analysis to feed bounded rationality in order to reach satisificing decisions. I do better that way than when I try to reach maximizing or optimising decisions about my IRA investments.
Simon was a Nobel Prize winner and an amazing human being.
The official recognition of his contributions is nothing short of astonishing: Let's start with the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences and the National Medal of Science and membership in the National Academy of Science. In addition, he received honorary degrees from two dozen universities around the world, as well as the top awards from APS, the American Psychological Association, the American Psychological Foundation, the Association for Computing Machinery, the American Economic Association, the American Society of Public Administration, the American Political Science Society, the Operations Research Society of America, and the Institute of Management Science.
A more complete record of Herb's accomplishments and awards is available online. His own description of his remarkable life can be found in his autobiography, Models of My Life (Simon, 1991), and a fascinating account of his seminal role in the "cognitive revolution" is provided in Pamela McCorduck's book Machines Who Think (McCorduck, 1979).
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