Tuesday, February 08, 2005 10:03:27 PM
roni - reality check
when was the last time a run of the mill magazine article moved a liquid, big-cap stock? There is Barrons and the Wall Street Journal, and then there is everything else when it comes to being able to move stocks on a story. And only then if there's something of a specific nature, as opposed to general abstract feel-good stuff like this. There's nothing there that's going to provide anyone covering the stock or with enough cash to move it one way or the other, with sudden impetus.
You've done well to recognize your own euphoric bullishness. Now the challenge becomes how to remain semi-objective and effective at analyzing the data. Will you analyze complete data sets, apply something approximating scientific method and let the results tell you what course to set? Or will you decide first, what the result should be, then set about to collect up whatever data can be found to support the pre-determined conclusion? Doing the latter is how people set themselves up to get hurt. There's nothing wrong with believing in your analysis and then betting heavily on what you really believe in, particularly where you know a company or product better than most. But when one becomes unquestioning and uncritical of the flimsiest of datapoints (and equally unquestioning of their sources) and sets out to extrapolate from them simply because they would lead to a bigger price objective, rather than because they are the sort of datapoints one would get if searching for best information, then the danger lights should be flashing.
when was the last time a run of the mill magazine article moved a liquid, big-cap stock? There is Barrons and the Wall Street Journal, and then there is everything else when it comes to being able to move stocks on a story. And only then if there's something of a specific nature, as opposed to general abstract feel-good stuff like this. There's nothing there that's going to provide anyone covering the stock or with enough cash to move it one way or the other, with sudden impetus.
You've done well to recognize your own euphoric bullishness. Now the challenge becomes how to remain semi-objective and effective at analyzing the data. Will you analyze complete data sets, apply something approximating scientific method and let the results tell you what course to set? Or will you decide first, what the result should be, then set about to collect up whatever data can be found to support the pre-determined conclusion? Doing the latter is how people set themselves up to get hurt. There's nothing wrong with believing in your analysis and then betting heavily on what you really believe in, particularly where you know a company or product better than most. But when one becomes unquestioning and uncritical of the flimsiest of datapoints (and equally unquestioning of their sources) and sets out to extrapolate from them simply because they would lead to a bigger price objective, rather than because they are the sort of datapoints one would get if searching for best information, then the danger lights should be flashing.
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