I clearly agree with the gist of your analysis, i.e. that the worst-case scenarios are already discounted by today’s closing valuation. However, I have a minor quibble with your effectively double counting MNTA’s tax-loss carryforward. You should either: i) place a multiple on MNTA’s expected income on a fully-taxed basis and add in the value of the NOL’s separately; or ii) place a multiple on MNTA’s untaxed income and ignore the NOL’s. In either case, you would be counting the tax benefit only once instead of twice.
I have built models for profit sharing and royalty cases.
I do not think that you should be deducting CGS from the royalty case. That is a guess - I do not recall it being stated explicitly.
And as another poster pointed out, there will be a decline in the market size due to competitive pricing. Not sure how big that will be with TEVA in and Sanofi offering an AG.
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