I clearly agree with the gist of your analysis, i.e. that the worst-case scenarios are already discounted by today’s closing valuation. However, I have a minor quibble with your effectively double counting MNTA’s tax-loss carryforward. You should either: i) place a multiple on MNTA’s expected income on a fully-taxed basis and add in the value of the NOL’s separately; or ii) place a multiple on MNTA’s untaxed income and ignore the NOL’s. In either case, you would be counting the tax benefit only once instead of twice.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”