News Focus
News Focus
icon url

haysaw

04/01/10 11:32 AM

#33023 RE: gfp927z #33021

Lol-You are the biggest cynic/realist in terms of bio/corx timelines. The only difference here, perhaps, is that you are long (although I would have imagined that you got antsy and sold already).
icon url

haysaw

04/04/10 8:37 PM

#33089 RE: gfp927z #33021

H-2 2011 is a realistic timeline for inking an ADHD deal, assuming it takes 12 months to complete the trial



That assumption takes a giant leap of faith. Also, don't forget about the other assumptions:

1) 3 months to get enrollment started

2) less than 6 months to ink a deal. (assuming your assumption and my #1 are accurate--much less time if either or both are delayed).

That is a parlay I wouldn't bet on :)
icon url

davidal66

04/05/10 4:56 PM

#33090 RE: gfp927z #33021

A high impact deal is, in my view, essential to help lower the risk, setting the foundation for re-listing.

I agree with the strategy of going "all in" with ADHD CX1739, but the risks are there... FDA(I think that the simple of an acceptance of the IND to initiate a phase IIa trial will be a mover of the stock in the short term. With a market cap of a few million and an enterprise value of much less, one can argue that "success of an automatic 'yes' from the FDA to begin ADHD testing with CX1739 is not 'factored into the share price.' I expect it on a rational basis, but I think that success here in the "iddy biddy step" may do quite a bit to begin to change perceptions.

I would urge Cortex to negotiate a deal with a top tier company in the ampakine high impact business, but, failing that, to trudge forward, spending essentially nothing in the high impact realm, holding them back for some day, is unwise and unsafe. I would more than settle for Servier to come forward with 5 million in upfront payments, ceding the high impacts away for a standard milestone, research and development collaboration for a few million a year. This would allow Cortex to further minimize the safety element, allowing them to re-hire the same/are or a new team to evaluate the high impacts, choosing a lead, to move forward with vigor.

The extra amount in upfront payments, warrants perhaps that are low-hanging fruit, would also allow Cortex to move from the pre-clinical stage, into toxicology with the 2007 series in the near future, perhaps allowing for a more lucrative end-stage low impact deal.

This is not a critique of Cortex' management, for Varney brought up a possible high impact collaboration. Faster please.