"Chechnya borders Georgia, and Georgia, like Azerbaidjan, is on the fast track to join NATO. There are already hundreds of US troops in Georgia, training the local forces. They are there for two reasons: first, to protect the US-built Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline; secondly – and this follows from the first – to assist Georgia in recuperating her two secessionist territories, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It will not do to have Russia anywhere close to the pipeline, and she has troops in both these areas. Pushing Russia comprehensively out of the Caucasus, and humiliating her, requires victory for the Chechens. An independent Chechnya may also be the prelude to the longer-term break-up of Russia herself: the CIA predicted that oil-rich Siberia might escape Moscow's control in its report, Global Trends 2015, published in April."
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline depends on Kazakhstan oil. When oil starts flowing next year from Kazakhstan, China will get 10 million tonnes a year. This will be doubled in 2011.
In fact, the pipeline can be extended to Kazakhstan's even richer oil fields in the Caspian Sea area.
Now there is a massive opposition taking shape in Kazakhstan which could change everything including cutting China off. Guess who. #msg-4673003
The Yushchenko-Timoshenko forces want to align with Georgia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova (the other nations in the GUUAM configuration of junior league NATO aspirants) in erecting a ring of iron around Putin and the former Soviet Union. U.S. troops are already in Georgia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. How long before they are in Kiev, training "President" Yushchenko's NATO-ized military in the use of American equipment – and advising a spiffed-up Ukrainian military within striking distance of the Kremlin?
"This [GUUAM] alliance lies "strategically at the hub of the Caspian oil and gas wealth, with Moldava and the Ukraine offering [pipeline] export routes to the West.
"Dominated by Anglo-American oil interests, the formation of GUUAM ultimately purports to exclude Russia from the oil and gas deposits in the Caspian area, as well as isolating Moscow politically [my emphasis-LC]."
"In the context of GUUAM and the SRS, Washington has encouraged the formation of pro-US client states strategically located along oil pipeline routes. The latter are to be "protected" by NATO under GUUAM and various other military cooperation agreements. The hidden agenda is to eventually cut the Russians off altogether from the Caspian oil and gas fields [my emphasis-LC].
"With a view to weakening Moscow's control over Caspian oil, several alternative pipeline routes have been envisaged. The Baku-Supsa pipeline—inaugurated in 1999 during the War in Yugoslavia and protected military by GUUAM—totally bypasses Russian territory. The oil is transported by pipeline from Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa, where it is shipped by tanker to the Pivdenny terminal near Odessa in the Ukraine. Both Georgia and Ukraine are part of the GUUAM military alliance. This Pivdenny terminal has been financed—in agreement with the (neo-fascist) government of President Leonid Kuchna—by Western loans."
Note NATO is to be used to protect the pipelines or Anglo-American oil interests. #msg-4665453
I fear for Russia. I have always said many of the moves Putin is criticized for are in fact defensive. #msg-4661342
"For Ukraine, the central issues are the future character of the CIS and freer access to energy sources, which would lessen Ukraine's dependence on Russia.
"Accordingly, Ukraine has supported Georgia's efforts to become the westward route for Azeri oil exports. Ukraine has also collaborated with Turkey in order to weaken Russian influence in the Black Sea and has supported Turkish efforts to direct oil flows from Central Asia to Turkish terminals. http://www.onlinejournal.com/Special_Reports/112604Chin/112604chin.html
Putin will pay a state visit to Turkey between December 5th and 6th. He will become the first Russian president paying a state visit to Turkey after 32 years. The last time Put attempted to go to Turkey Bush slaughtered the Russian school children at Beslan and he had to postpone. #msg-4655654
Yesterday in Moscow and Kiev there was widespread discussion of the scandal that flared up over the postponement of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko's visit to Russia. Meanwhile, the internal political situation in Ukraine continued to heat up, provoking an increasingly aggressive exchange of blows between opposing camps. Yesterday Timoshenko was forced to deny rumors of serious differences with President Viktor Yushchenko and of her imminent resignation. Yury Lutsenko, Ukraine's interior minister, also announced the possibility of instituting a criminal case against Viktor Yanukovich, the would-be leader of the Ukrainian opposition, a former prime minister, and presidential candidate.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko remains one of the leading newsmakers in both the Russian and Ukrainian capitals. Yesterday in Moscow, after the initial burst of emotion was over, they were trying to determine how to react to the announcement of the sudden postponement of her visit to the Russian capital [see Kommersant of April 14]. Meanwhile, additional interesting details emerged, throwing light on the detective story of the visit's cancellation.
A source in the Russian power structures reported yesterday that the Ukrainian group preparing the visit did not arrive in Moscow yesterday. According to the source, the postponement of the visit was not a spontaneous decision, as was believed on Wednesday, but was planned in advance. Yesterday as well, Interpol's office in Russia was included in the ongoing discussion between Moscow and Kiev on Timoshenko's relationship with international and Russian justice. Timur Lakhonin, the head of Interpol's National Central Bureau in Russia, explained that, by a decision of the Interpol secretariat, the warrant for Timoshenko had been suspended but not cancelled. In more precise legal terms, “the warrant has been suspended due to the political status of the person under investigation,” Lakhonin said.
Lakhonin's statement sounded like a response to a statement made the day before by his Ukrainian colleague, Kirill Kulikov, who said that there was no warrant out for Timoshenko. “With full responsibility, I inform you that Yulia Vladimirovna Timoshenko has been removed from Interpol's police information system,” Kulikov said on Wednesday.
Russian politicians also continued to comment vigorously on the postponed visit yesterday. “Timoshenko isn't afraid of anyone or anything. They won't arrest her in Russia as prime minister,” said First Vice-Speaker Lyubov Sliska, giving her view of the situation. “I'm thinking of calling her today, but she's not in right now. For some reason, the question of her visit is still up in the air,” Sliska noted. Touching on Russian-Ukrainian relations as a whole, Sliska defined their task as “convincing one another that we can trust each other.” At the same time, she added the following reservation. “The fact that Ukraine has started saying with increasing frequency that we may reconsider some of the parameters of our economic cooperation agreement, and the renewed talk about the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is causing a strain.”
Meanwhile, in Ukraine yesterday, they were not discussing Timoshenko's cancelled visit to Moscow so much as rumors of her imminent resignation. In particular, Timoshenko's unexpected absence at a government meeting on Wednesday helped spread these rumors. It was later learned that during the cabinet meeting, Timoshenko was in Yushchenko's office involved in a lengthy discussion with the president. During their conversation, high-ranking officials and deputies from the pro-presidential factions were invited one at a time into the president's office.
In commenting on this meeting, observers in Kiev agreed that it was very difficult. Although Yushchenko knew of his prime minister's upcoming visit to Moscow, at the very last minute, he decided not to shift some of the responsibility for relations with Russia onto Timoshenko. Thus it turned out that Timoshenko was insulted twice – in Russia and at home. And many in Kiev began to regard this circumstance as a sign of her speedy resignation.
Adding fuel to the fire was yesterday's sudden revelation by Oleg Antipov, the head of the Zhitomir regional organization of Timoshenko's Batkivshchina party. Antipov said at a press conference that he had met the day before with Timoshenko, and she had supposedly said she would probably be replaced as head of the cabinet in May or September. According to Antipov, the main threat to the prime minister came from her government, but did not say from whom.
Timoshenko clearly did not expect this news from Zhitomir and yesterday was forced to repudiate her fellow party member's statement. “It is quite clear that certain circles in Ukraine are talking deliriously about this development of events. However, their dreams have no chance of coming true,” Timoshenko said, repeating once again that she and the president were “a team forever”. Yesterday evening, Yushchenko, who was on a one-day visit to Dnepropetrovsk, also commented on rumors of Timoshenko's possible resignation. “Pure nonsense,” he said.
At the very least, it is premature to speak of the prime minister's resignation. In this connection, it is notable that Roman Bezsmertny, the deputy prime minister responsible for administrative reform and one of the president's closest associates, who is involved in party organization on Timoshenko's instructions, has entered into detailed negotiations on forming a coalition based on the Our Ukraine Party (headed by Bezsmertny), Yury Kostenko's People's Party, and the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc. That is, a quarrel with Yulia Timoshenko and her loss as an ally was clearly not in Yushchenko's plans.
Meanwhile, the internal political situation continues to heat up, provoking an increasingly aggressive exchange of blows between opposing camps. While the opposition is counting on a split at the top and is preparing for an offensive, the leaders of orange Ukraine are continuing to put pressure on the former leaders. Yesterday, Ukraine's interior minister said he did not rule out the possibility of instituting a criminal case against Viktor Yanukovich, the leader of the Party of Regions, a former prime minister, and presidential candidate.
According to the minister, instituting a case against Yanukovich was possible “as against one of the main organizers of the election violations.” “I have the impression that we've hit on the main vein that fed the election campaign of the pro-government candidate, so-called charitable foundations, “ Lutsenko reported.
At the same time, however, he indicated it was possible that criminal cases would also be instituted against President Yushchenko and his associates if their guilt was established in matters such as the bankruptcy of the Ukraina Agricultural Bank, the education of children abroad at this bank's expense, and involvement in the construction of the Odessa–Brody gas pipeline without a feasibility study. “I'm not ruling out the possibility of these charges. However, they are all the prerogative of agencies of the prosecutor's office,” the minister said significantly.
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