Replies to post #8993 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Koikaze]

I've been wondering if the inevitable hoopla as we approach September 11th isn't going to cause a few jitters.

Fred

[marvin1946]

Zeev,
Some fundamentals and dates that turnips may look at

1. 8/14 ceo sign off in blood. As we move closer and it becomes clear that the vast majority of corporate execs are confident in their numbers, market should begin to rally.
2. As we move closer to 9/11 date, fear of terror(like July 4) should cause a pause in the rally.
3. Post 9/11 if all goes well, rally should have another leg.

4. Now the $64 question, assuming the above 3 pan out--what happens in october? Is a precipitous fall a certainty? I guess that will really depend on what happens in early october with earnings and forecasts. All the usual suspects that reported in July will be doing the same in october. Numbers probably will suck, but the questions are how badly and what they will say going forward. And heres where Greenspan/O'Neill may come in urging execs not to hesitate being upbeat if thats what they see. Many execs now have been overly cautious for obvious reason. If we get good news in october this rally can really gain momentum and follow seasonal market strength first into january and then march. In that scenario, we may see 2000s. In other scenario a possible retest of last weeks lows at 1200. Marv

[hiker]

Re: "This rally could go on till mid September or even longer."

Zeev, shouldn't the prospect of war temper this rally somewhat, and won't that be evident by September?

hiker
(who is not trying to start a political discussion here, just anticipate market action)

[Cholan]

In the last 3-4 weeks your "turnips" have been dead wrong with both the targets and turn dates. (Going back to when you said a "head for the hills" call was due on any close below 1380. I do not think you satisfactorily answered those who kept bugging you about it. Maybe you had no answer

It has been easily forgiven in this board but you have to admit it certainly does not live up to your own expectations and previous record.
I am wondering if the next set of targets and dates you are presenting are a result of the same data analysis. Maybe the data you have used in your "propreietary" analysis needs to be changed and could possibly give you different results. Maybe there is some other piece of exogenous piece of data you are leaving out or maybe including some piece of inappropriate data

Just curious as what you think you think may have gone wrong in the initial analyis of your data and why do you think this time you will return to the old, more accurate "turnip".

Anyway, good luck and thanks for your informative posts. I am sure you will trade around whatever is thrown at you but some here who may not be as nimble. For example I am sure there are a lot of bagholders in QCOM from last week, and QLGC from 3 weeks ago when at 42 it was "headed to 50")

IMO, I think that there are funny things going on with that Aug 14 date and companies like BRCM, IBM, and even QCOM are not showing enough strength for a run to 1500 in 15 trading days. I think we do get to 1500 and maybe more, but it will be later in the fall and likely conciding with some political stuff.
P.S. I do not use proprietary signals. Just simple TA stuff and reading what others smarter than me (of which you are one) are writing. <GG