Replies to post #9028 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

I hope you realize that those turnips are not endowed with super natural powers and do err. Retrospectively, early in July, my turnips were looking for a milder bottom (sharp enough in terms of end point which in May were given at three levels: 1325, 1296 and worst case 1250, even the "worst case was not enough <g, but not sharp enough in term of sentiments indicators) and thus a "puny rally" followed by a major additional decline, and thus the sentiment indicators present toward the July first call where sufficient. Why they erred, I don't really know. It is possible, that the "new " lack of trust in the markets precipitated by a series of corporate misconducts in an incessant cascade (Enron, Global Crossing, Imclone, TYCO, WCOM, Adelphia, and last week the big center banks was not sufficiently "discounted" by the markets. Mind you, I took a little more defensive position on 7/11 to "neutral" and cash position in the 40%-50% range (and everyone could have followed since the Naz went back to 1400 after my going back Neutral), and went back to a Bull position again on the 15th at 1315, so really, the damage from that faulty July 2nd call, was not that bad (and many took great profits on the run 7/3 and 7/5, I did). We are still under that 7/15 call (1315) not by much, and I think that even those that entered at the first call at around 1400 on the Naz will do quite fine within the next six weeks.

Zeev

[Joe Stocks]

Cholan, >>>In the last 3-4 weeks your "turnips" have been dead wrong with both the targets and turn dates. <<<

I feel your pain. I got the same problem with the local weather guy in trying to get some outdoor projects done. Maybe he should change his system?

No, the market, like the weather is to get the move or direction right at least 50% of the time. Actually with good stops you can do very well with less than 50%. The market is not predictable, if the market was, there would be no need for a market because everyone would know. Kind of like religion and faith. To have a "religion" there must be the presense of faith in the unknown for without the unknown there would be no need for religion because we would know.

IMO, Zeev's "beauty" is his opinion of anticipating the movements within the market. Zeev has good instincts but like the weatherman, the market can move in unpredictable patterns.
Dwelling in the past would be a fool's game for Zeev or anyway else because past "wrongs" are only new ingredients for the next prediction. And like religion, to think otherwise would be "dead wrong".

I like Zeev just the way he is. Not that he is always right but more that he helps me form my own conclusions to make my "own" choices. My expectations are for Zeev to be "dead wrong" sometimes, that's part of trading the market. What is important is the big picture. The mention of QCOM or QLGC's past price movement as an indication skill is just plain silly.

JMO, Joe
BTW, I disagree with Zeev a lot. I got to work on that.