hiker,
As you said, this topic is germaine because of market impact. I have researched this topic carefully, and most pundits who are supposedly "in the know" say there is virtually no liklihood of action against Iraq until after the elections (2nd week of November). Most are throwing around a timeframe of mid-Nov to mid-Dec. Also, the weather becomes more combat-friendly at that time. (Whew ... I think that comes close to an oxymoron ... VBG).
greg