Replies to post #82285 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

…[the HCV arena] is getting so crowded I'm finding it hard to value companies in this arena.

This is a good thing, not a bad thing. If it were easy to evaluate these opportunities, there would be fewer pricing inefficiencies to exploit.

will a nuke even be the optimal second agent in a direct-acting cocktail following a PI?

Almost certainly yes, IMO. Nukes generally have the highest barriers to resistance and the broadest coverage of the various HCV genotypes, which makes them an ideal mate for a PI.

If so how long will that combo last as SOC?

Given the slowness of the regulatory process, if a nuke+PI, nuke+nuke+PI, or nuke+non-nuke+PI combination becomes the SoC, it will likely continue to be the SoC until 2020 and perhaps even longer.

[mcbio]

Re: HCV competition

take idix for example - how much is 184 worth?

According to the market, not much. IDIX trades at just over a $180 million market cap, but now has PoC with IDX-184. And IDX-184 was more potent than VRUS' PSI-7851 at the 100mg qd dose level. And IDIX stil has the 2nd gen PI and non-nuke to follow in addition to the already partnered HIV compound. Although the HCV compounds may be well behind the first generation compounds in their respective classes, they are right in the thick of things as far as the second generation compounds go. So, there's a lot going on IMHO for a company with such a tiny market cap.

the market potential is staggering for the winner(s), but trying to pick the next vrtx in such a crowded field is not easy

It is very difficult, which is why I don't really try to do that. It's very difficult to predict how things will transpire over the long haul; I'm really just trying to predict which stocks can offer me the best risk/reward over the next year or so. I just have a lot more confidence in predicting these shorter-term moves. I will in all likelihood be completely out of my ACHN and IDIX positions by the end of next year and on to the next opportunity. Whether I will be in the red or black of course remains to be seen.