…[the HCV arena] is getting so crowded I'm finding it hard to value companies in this arena.
This is a good thing, not a bad thing. If it were easy to evaluate these opportunities, there would be fewer pricing inefficiencies to exploit.
will a nuke even be the optimal second agent in a direct-acting cocktail following a PI?
Almost certainly yes, IMO. Nukes generally have the highest barriers to resistance and the broadest coverage of the various HCV genotypes, which makes them an ideal mate for a PI.
If so how long will that combo last as SOC?
Given the slowness of the regulatory process, if a nuke+PI, nuke+nuke+PI, or nuke+non-nuke+PI combination becomes the SoC, it will likely continue to be the SoC until 2020 and perhaps even longer.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”