Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: HCV competition

take idix for example - how much is 184 worth?

According to the market, not much. IDIX trades at just over a $180 million market cap, but now has PoC with IDX-184. And IDX-184 was more potent than VRUS' PSI-7851 at the 100mg qd dose level. And IDIX stil has the 2nd gen PI and non-nuke to follow in addition to the already partnered HIV compound. Although the HCV compounds may be well behind the first generation compounds in their respective classes, they are right in the thick of things as far as the second generation compounds go. So, there's a lot going on IMHO for a company with such a tiny market cap.

the market potential is staggering for the winner(s), but trying to pick the next vrtx in such a crowded field is not easy

It is very difficult, which is why I don't really try to do that. It's very difficult to predict how things will transpire over the long haul; I'm really just trying to predict which stocks can offer me the best risk/reward over the next year or so. I just have a lot more confidence in predicting these shorter-term moves. I will in all likelihood be completely out of my ACHN and IDIX positions by the end of next year and on to the next opportunity. Whether I will be in the red or black of course remains to be seen.