Replies to post #294044 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Bacchus_II]

Follow the snake : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

[brainlessone]

i was looking at the track as it hit jamaica

it looked liked i ws going due west to slightly south west a that time, pointing at central america.

but will it stay on tht track?

[Bruce A Thompson]

Tops

That high is the steering influence right now. It is air circulating in a clockwise direction exactly the opposite direction from the hurricane flow. Right now the wind direction effect is from the bottom of the high pressure area which is from east to west. There is also a cold front involved that ends just off the Ga. coast.

Weather patterns (highs lows and cold fronts) move from west to east. That means one of two things may happen.

The high could intensify and actually get larger faster than it is moving to the east. That would push Ivan more to the west. We are not talking more than a hundred miles or so in the next three days. That would be the very best scenario for us west coasters. That would take an awful lot of intensifying and I personally am doubtful that it will happen that way.

The more likely scenario, IMHO, is for the high to stay relatively the same size and move a hundred miles or so to the east. That would cause the steering currents affecting Ivan to be the west side of the high which would be the northward to northeastward direction. This will cause Ivan to hook around the high and continue northeastward.

Watch the high. It will tell you where Ivan is going. You can most likely follow the influence of the high on Ivan in the water vapor loop you posted. I can't seem to find the link.

BT

[zztops]

The Cone Of Death has been moved away from south Florida at this time by the weather pros and if IVAN moves 100 miles further west by tomorrow morning, they should move the Cone completely off Florida, except for the panhandle.