Replies to post #280306 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sherlock356]

Zeev: "When this thread becomes despondent, I typically go "fully loaded" and it works...under 5% cash right here from 25% plus last week."..I think that is one of the best indicators one can find.

[Burk]

I also like this analysis from a paid site..

"I have no idea if the markets will embrace Friday's employment number, nor do I know whether next week's Fed meeting will find folks bullish or bearish. But it now seems likely that if either of those events takes the market down, it will be doing so late in the decline.

It will be late because the 30-day moving average of the A/D line will be reaching its maximum oversold reading late next week. It will be doing so because the sentiment indicators, while moving only grudgingly, are finally moving toward less bullishness. And even though the Nasdaq came within 15 points of making a lower low yesterday, the number of stocks making new lows was still almost 100 fewer than last week's peak reading.

So if the market gets whacked over the next week, based on any of these events, it should be more like a last-gasp decline than a fresh break."

[Bullwinkle]

I agree Zeev although we may see a little more down or sideways first. A lot will be determined tomorrow after the Jobs #'s. I do not think the number itself will be as important as how Mr. Market chooses to interpret it... With that said I would like to point out the last cycle turn we had back in June. On June 8th I felt the top for the move was in, we started to decline and I flipped my long fund to short. Needless to say we muddled around and then moved higher than where I had placed my bet. I decided to wait it out and sure enough we got our decline which is the decline we are currently in. Then last friday I was pretty sure we had our signal for a trend reversal and flipped that short fund to the long side and just like back in June we look to be doing the same only the inverse. The turn date is still intact I believe, just delayed a bit. So I will do what I did then and wait it out because the move up is close at hand. If it is not meant to be, well, se' la vie...

[TexasTech]

Hi Zeev,

You remind of my old stock broker. He was one of those guys that never got hurt in a declining market. I really wonder what your stake really is? Doesn't matter I suppose just imaginary trades anyhow.

Anyhow, I've felt the sting of late. I'm content to increase my holdings in NFI a little at a time. Looks like year-end with dividend and bonus of a yield of 20%. Wonder how your trading compares to that return.

TT