"Yes I'm pessimistic, and I think for a very good reason. I have never seen a business environment like this in the 33 years I've been running my company"
I'm not pessimistic.. but ditto on the 25 years here... nothing like it.
I can NOT emphasize enough that business is moving at a SNAILS pace in a period which it should be hopping. Industrial output has now (in April) moved to a lower level than I have ever seen. May looks the same. Normally, even in slow years, it's "boom" until Jul/Aug (the soft months), then a lighter boom thereafter. What is happening is that the Jan-Apr period is all very, very SOFT... and that will move into the Jul/Aug 'normally soft' time period only to... uhmmmmmm... experience and even 'softer' Jul/Aug????? That would be back-to-back 'soft'. Can we extrapolate what that will evently cause economically?
I'm telling you-> industrial output is grinding down like a worn out battery on its last charge. It is more than 'concerning', it's getting critical. It's almost like a situation where industry makes 'hay when the sun shines' but there doesn't seem to be any sun.
No joke. No sun.
You are 'dead on' with regard to companies trying to stretch the last of their cash reserves... they've held out waiting for a turn & the turn didn't happen. If your vendors are slowing down their payments, then we are in a 'vendor financing' arena & nothing (nothing!) is good about that... the risks mount. It's never a win-win across the board.
Being in the trenches and living through it is a LOT different than reading about it. This is to say that what we are discussing today is NOT in the news yet. No matter how you look at it, 'news' is a historical record as to what has already happened.
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