Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[n4807g]

Mike I just looked at the news and it doesn't look particularly promising. Tax receipts "collapsing", Bernanke trying to push mortgage rates to 4% because the house market is still failing. Loss reserves at banks growing. Commercial RE on the brink and layoff announcements accelerating. The FED desire to push rates lower is a dead giveaway to me; they see mucho trouble.

Now just how are they going to place the now estimated 2.4 trillion in new Treasuries?

Yes I'm pessimistic, and I think for a very good reason. I have never seen a business environment like this in the 33 years I've been running my company. As I've mentioned, cash issues are beginning to show up in the wholesale distribution channel...ie customers aren't paying my customers and my customers are beginning to extend their payment time frames....I'm sure I'm not alone.

For me it's simple; watch Bernanke and the prevailing mortgage rate. If he tries to drive it lower, we're in a worsening position.