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OT: I got my first season ticket to a professional team: Naples FC, right on the field where the teams sit. Some coaching memories made me do it and I am looking forward to their first season starting in March and also the pre season games to see what we got here.
After rate cuts the small caps, sub $2billion market caps, have outperformed the others, thus as you could observe if you are following my trades in the last 2 months especially, I had been and will keep on focusing on the small ones in my daily trades. In the options I like the very liquid mega ones, for nice tight bid and asked.
The bulls can take over if they can move early in the trading day above SPX 5761.
On the other hand it could be a day for the bears if they can keep going lower and record the SPX below 5700.
We shall see.
Have a good weekend.
Looks like it is breaking down, with lower highs showing in the long term, according to Yardeni.
AAPL had a large imbalance and at the close it sold thus we ended in the red on Friday.
NVDA is interesting, it shows weakness, but if it can close above 119 I will take a position that it may hit 150 before 100.
We grow wise with the years: this is the theory.
This year, the Year of Our Lord 2024, I suggest that you not vote for a person who is angry and saying lunatic things detached from reality and promising apocalyptic times to come. That is not for America.
God has blessed this country lavishly. Brilliant immigrants have come for freedom from the fevers of Europe and the grinding poverty of leftover colonial empires, and their ingenuity and spirit and wit and their adoration of this New World have enriched us each and every one.
We're simply a diverse and fascinating assemblage of wonders and oddities, dreamers and floaters, 4-Hers, bellyachers, Unitarians, contrarians, librarians, egalitarians, and Wagnerians — a person walks through town and never lacks for entertainment. God bless America. He has done so before. We need it now.
Let's hope he loses. He will try to grab the money.
Even my relatives are laughing as they hear some of our politicking.
To what end if he loses the election? It will be fun to watch as we get closer. I'll be out of the country until 10/5 so I'm going to miss a lot of his whining and shenanigans.
I thought they paid their money to Trump this way to keep it legal.
I think more belly flop than swan dive.
It can be worthwhile to study the trading pattern of a stock we like to trade. Some spike in a morning and some late in the day.
Re opened STRL with 600 shares at 148.66.
Trimmed LLY at 938.9 for a $10 per share gain on a 100.
Round tripped HCA, sold PGR and added: CSGS, STRL, QFIN.
SpotGamma Founder Discusses How The Fed's Next Move And Expiring Derivatives Could Spark Market Turbulence
BENZINGA 9:48 AM ET 9/20/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
NVDA 117.24down -0.63 (-0.5345%)
QUOTES AS OF 10:12:28 AM ET 09/20/2024
The U.S. equity market stands at a critical crossroads, SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba says.
The convergence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the September expiration of derivatives positions may trigger a scenario similar to last month's turbulence when highly leveraged positions in currencies, stocks, and options unraveled.
"This setup mirrors what we saw on August 1st," Kochuba told SpotGamma subscribers. "Downside volatility may be in excess of what the market is pricing due to the twin triggers of negative gamma and correlation spasms."
Kochuba, known for his analyses and forecasting of markets through the lens of options positioning, shared his journey with Benzinga a few years ago. He returned to discuss how SpotGamma's new tools are helping both retail and institutional traders navigate complex market conditions.
The former derivatives broker and portfolio manager evaluates metrics like gamma—the sensitivity of option prices to movements in the underlying market. He also provides valuable insight into how market makers manage risk and affect outcomes.
"With the surge in options trading, many banks now acknowledge that options volumes have surpassed stock volumes in significance," Kochuba noted. "For those who don't trade options, it's still critical to watch their flows, as they provide insight into potential market moves."
In late July, Kochuba highlighted the risks posed by declining correlations and the growing concentration of indexes like the S&P 500 among their largest components, such as Nvidia Corporation(NVDA) .
"The juice was squeezed out of these trades," he told subscribers. "As stocks like Nvidia(NVDA), Apple, and Microsoft started to stall, they were a drag on the S&P 500. If traders began selling off these large names, it would pressure the index due to their outsized influence."
Following July's rotation out of large-cap tech, AI, and the so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks into riskier sectors, traders shifted strategies, moving from betting on market upside through call options to buying put options to hedge against and bet on potential declines.
"The only way to unwind heavy concentration and correlation was for the S&P 500 to drop, which it did, and the VIX to spike," Kochuba recalled. "On August 2, we told subscribers it was one of the ugliest setups we'd seen, and there was no reason to hold stocks or be short options."
Despite a quick market recovery, Kochuba warns that volatility risks persist. Money allocated to the trades that unraveled in August (i.e., short positions on the S&P 500 and VIX) has grown. This was driven by renewed confidence in the market rebound.
"This feels like the early days of Volmageddon in 2017," Kochuba added, referencing concerns raised by pundits like Marko Kolanovic, who foresee a potential repeat of the volatility crisis. "My biggest concern is the illusion of liquidity. Many short-dated flows that dominate the market disappear when real risk emerges, replaced by record demand elsewhere like VIX call options."
Traders are increasingly betting on or hedging against downside risks by buying put options and selling call options. This limits market upside, Kochuba says. Mid-September is potentially pivotal, with catalysts such as the Fed's interest rate decision triggering further declines.
SpotGamma offers tools like TRACE to help traders monitor such risks. It tracks options hedging and impacts on market direction and volatility.
"We believe TRACE is essential for anyone active in the market," Kochuba said. "It's a new system tracking dealer and market maker exposure, clearly showing market positioning. With this information, we can forecast support, resistance, and market movements because we understand how major players will likely hedge in the days and weeks ahead."
SpotGamma and TRACE gained traction with institutions looking to map out positioning during critical periods when market sentiment can shift rapidly, Kochuba adds.
"We're dedicated to delivering essential insights into how traders express their outlook in the markets, with TRACE offering a clear way to visualize how these flows evolve through the day."
Trump Media shares face potential sell-off as insider selling restrictions lift
REUTERS 2:39 PM ET 9/19/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
DJT 14.8168up -0.8032 (-5.1421%)
SBUX 96.85up +0.73 (+0.7595%)
NVDA 118.5106up +5.1406 (+4.5344%)
QUOTES AS OF 03:03:40 PM ET 09/19/2024
By Medha Singh and Noel Randewich
(Reuters) - While former U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will not sell his $1.7 billion stake in Trump Media(DJT) after restrictions likely expire on Thursday, other insiders could soon cash in their gains.
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is 57% owned by the Republican presidential candidate who told reporters last Friday that he does not plan to sell his shares.
Other major stakeholders who could soon sell their shares include United Atlantic Ventures and Patrick Orlando, whose fund, ARC Global Investments II, sponsored the blank-check company that merged with Trump Media(DJT) in March. The two own a combined 11% of Trump Media(DJT), according to a company filing.
"Even if Trump doesn't, it would be interesting if other insiders begin selling because that would be a clue as to what they think his mindset is about selling," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
Trump Media (DJT) insiders could sell their shares as early as after the bell on Thursday if the stock ends the regular trading session at or above $12, according to a provision in the company's prospectus.
Shares were last down 4% at $15, extending sharp losses in recent weeks fueled by worries about the end of so-called lock-up period related to its stock market debut in March.
Trump and other insiders, including Chief Operating Officer Andrew Northwall, Chief Technology Officer Vladimir Novachki and director Donald Trump Jr., did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment on their plans after the lock-up expires.
Trump Media (DJT) did not respond to a request for a comment.
The size of ARC's stake in Trump Media(DJT) is in dispute. A Delaware judge this week ruled ARC Global should receive 8.19 million shares of Trump Media(DJT), more than the roughly 7 million shares that the company has said that ARC was entitled to.
Separately, Truth Social cofounders Andy Litinsky and Wes Moss have also sued TMTG for damages for preventing them from selling their stock sooner.
Orlando and Moss did not immediately reply to requests for comment, while Litinsky could not be reached for a comment.
Newly listed companies often see pressure on their stocks ahead of the end of their lock-up period, when insiders become free to sell their often considerable stakes.
Trump Media (DJT), which operates the Truth Social app, saw its value balloon to nearly $10 billion following its Wall Street debut, lifted by retail traders and traders who see it as a speculative bet on his chances of securing a second four-year term as president.
However, after reaching that peak, Trump Media(DJT) shares have lost most of their value, with declines accelerating in recent weeks after President Joe Biden gave up his reelection bid on July 21, and Trump lost a lead in opinion polls ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election to Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. Betting markets now show Harris with a modest advantage over Trump in a tight race.
Trump Media's (DJT) revenue is equivalent to two Starbucks(SBUX) coffee shops, and strategists say its $3 billion stock market value is detached from its day-to-day business.
Its stock is trading at the equivalent of over 1,000 times its revenue, far exceeding the valuation of even AI superstar Nvidia(NVDA), which recently traded at 24 times its revenue.
"The market couldn't absorb even a partial stake sale without some material damage to the stock," Sosnick said.
"Ultimately a lot will hinge on whether (Trump) keeps his word on not selling while the longer term prospects of the company are completely dependent upon his electoral prospects."
Insiders Stake as % of outstanding
TMTG shares
Donald Trump 56.6%
United Atlantic 5.5%
Ventures llc
ARC Global 5.5%
Investments
Phillip Juhan 0.2%
Devin Nunes 0.06%
Scott Glabe 0.01%
(Reporting by Noel Randewich and Medha Singh; Additional reporting by Lance Tupper and Tom Hals; Editing by Megan Davies and Diane Craft)
Opened RMBS and sold ATAT and more MHO.
A big rally one day will often succumb to profit taking late in the day or the next morning, by people who do not believe trees do not grow to the sky.
I am selling into this profitable bounce on the good news. Some of the future news is getting built into the averages that the Fed will do more cuts this year and early next year again.
Bought back NVDA 15 Puts, sold PAM.
Added CRNC, SN, MHO, LYTS, PGR, FMBH.
Yesterday was a good day for adding positions, although it is not too late today.
Deranged Donald Trump did warn Jay Powell and the Fed not to lower interest rate prior to the election.
Trump took to his "truth social club" today and ordered House Republicans to shut-down the US government.
If Putin doesn't see better results soon, Trump may take a dive out the window of a tall building.
CNN has made a career of being useless. They're screaming that this is a "huge" rate cut. Republicans will call it biased. Anyone watching the futures knew there was better than a 50/50 chance this would be the size of the cut. Since the market expected it, there's a lot of smart money taking profits and trying to scare out weak hands when they should be buying.
A 50bp cut. Probably 25 in November followed by a 50 in December.
I sold ILMN, ISRG and bought back 10 Puts in NVDA.
Round tripped ALX and SN, plan on buying both back a few dollars lower....today.
In the past when the Fed cut rates the market was up a year later. However, today we and especially near the election date we could see much volatility.....with several buying opportunities.
Closed KRO and opened: SN, ALX, JSAIY and BPOP.
Sold NVDA 5 Puts.
This is fascinating stuff. We're beginning to see more ice above sea level melt away and this will be the thing to watch. I remember thinking that massive, melting ice shelves which were measured almost 40 years ago, would be a problem for sea level as these ice shelves became icebergs. But it's not true, if anything when ice shelves or icebergs melt they take up less space. It was, of course, great fodder for climate deniers. The problem is not melting ice shelves it's that once gone, there's nothing holding back the land based ice which can be a mile or two thick.
The other more recent finding, actually a decade ago but only recently being widely accepted is that if we begin to seriously lower carbon emissions there is no built in 30 year period before atmospheric CO2 levels begin to fall. This is great news if we actually do something about this problem. But there's a dark side to this theory and it's based on observation of ocean warming over the last 30 years.
You may remember that in the 1970s scientists thought, (rightly by the way), that we were headed into another cooling period. The oceans were cooling and did not stop cooling until the late 1990s. Since then they've been warming rapidly. More heat, more energy, more energy more ability to create damage. What we're seeing is the ocean taking on the great majority of the responsibility for sequestering the CO2 we're adding to the atmosphere. It was a surprise and no one knows what comes next. How soon before we need a scale that measures Cat6 hurricanes?
Microsoft said Tuesday that Russian operatives have in recent weeks intensified their online attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign by producing and disseminating videos promoting “outlandish conspiracy theories” aimed at stoking US racial and political divisions.
One of the inauthentic videos, which Microsoft said had been viewed millions of times, claimed to show Harris supporters attacking an attendee of a Donald Trump rally. Another video falsely claimed that Harris paralyzed a young girl in a 2011 hit-and-run accident. Russian operatives promoted the latter story through a website pretending to be a local San Francisco media outlet, Microsoft researchers said.
Both videos were still accessible on X as of Tuesday afternoon, with one post of the video garnering 1.5 million views on its own. CNN has requested comment from the social media platform.
The report is the latest evidence that Kremlin-linked trolls and digital operatives are ramping up their efforts to denigrate Harris’s campaign just weeks before the presidential election. US intelligence agencies warned in July that Russia planned to “covertly use social media” to try to sway public opinion and undermine support for Ukraine in swing states.
Russia’s preferences for the presidential race haven’t shifted since 2020 or 2016, when Moscow conducted a range of influence operations aimed at denigrating Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, respectively, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
CNN has requested comment on the Microsoft report from the Harris-Walz campaign and from the Russian Embassy in Washington, DC.
Russians ‘struggled to pivot’ attack from Biden to Harris
There was an initial period after Biden withdrew from the presidential race in July when Russian influence operations“struggled to pivot” to find new ways to target the Democratic ticket, according to Microsoft. But then, in late August and early September, the videos attacking Harris and her supporters emerged.
“The shift to focusing on the Harris-Walz campaign reflects a strategic move by Russian actors aimed at exploiting any perceived vulnerabilities in the new candidates,” Clint Watts, general manager of the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, said in a blog post.
The research comes amid a flurry of US government action aimed at blunting Russian disinformation efforts targeting American voters in the final stretches of the presidential campaign.
The State Department last week declassified intelligence alleging that Russian state-run media outlet RT has become fully integrated into Russia’s intelligence operations around the world, including those targeting elections.
That followed an indictment unsealed by the Justice Department that accused two RT employees of funneling nearly $10 million into a US company, identified by CNN as Tenet Media, to create and amplify content that aligned with Russian interests.
US social media giant Meta on Monday announced a ban on RT over the Russian network’s “foreign interference activity.”
Without a "before and after" photo I'd never notice the change in the glacier which fell into the Dickson Fjord - no passing cruise chips in the fjord at the time.
https://www.seismosoc.org/news/greenland-megatsunami-led-to-week-long-oscillating-fjord-wave/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024-09-13/mystery-seismic-signal-greenland-landslide-tsunami-seiche-fjord/104327900
Yea, I was thinking the same thing. I was going to add this note to my post so I'll add it now.
Entire Earth vibrated for nine days after climate-triggered mega-tsunami
Landslide in Greenland caused unprecedented seismic event that shows impact of global heating, say scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/entire-earth-vibrated-climate-triggered-mega-tsunami
A landslide and mega-tsunami in Greenland in September 2023, triggered by the climate crisis, caused the entire Earth to vibrate for nine days, a scientific investigation has found.
The seismic event was detected by earthquake sensors around the world but was so completely unprecedented that the researchers initially had no idea what had caused it. Having now solved the mystery, the scientists said it showed how global heating was already having planetary-scale impacts and that major landslides were possible in places previously believed to be stable as temperatures rapidly rose.
The collapse of a 1,200-metre-high mountain peak into the remote Dickson fjord happened on 16 September 2023 after the melting glacier below was no longer able to hold up the rock face. It triggered an initial wave 200 metres high and the subsequent sloshing of water back and forth in the twisty fjord sent seismic waves through the planet for more than a week...............................................................
.
He is seeking attention all the time, he craves it, just like another one related to Tesla.
The markets are in a waiting mode and most people are not committing to large positions a day before the rate cut.
I made a few small trades. Bought back NVDA 20 Puts and just now sold 5. Also sold LMT 3 Puts.
Closed for nice gains: STRL, NYT, OFG. For no gain: CAJPY.
Opened positions in: PGR, FIS.
Trump's "Truth Social" website teaches his followers that the false idea that the Earth is round was started in 1900 by the Rockefellers and the Rothchilds.
You'll learn how the Ice Wall surrounding our flat Earth protects our planet from warming and helps Commander Thor protect us from the aliens, on the other side of the ice wall, who are placated by being given human babies to eat. Eating pets is just the first truth-step into Trump's deep rabbit hole.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1482217882403439
She lets us know, "Everything you learn in schools is a big huge lie."
She's a Trump voter and I'm confident she hasn't any clue that Brexit was Putin's trial balloon to influence democracies, because she gets her "information" from Donald Trump's website which simply posts the stories Russia's GRU makes up for publication in the West.
Not judging, because I certainly don't live in a teepee and walk everywhere I need to go, but it's clear almost no one cares about climate change except to wring their hands now and then and blame big oil. We are truly frogs in a pot that's about to boil in the next 50-100 years.
Not surprisingly, 2023 was a new record because everyone started traveling again, including my family.
I really don't think very many people get that Brexit was Russia's trial balloon.
People who don't understand economics, or those who needed a refresher, probably now understand that Brexit was a grave error, and they might even partially understand why.
Given these facts, anyone sensible has to ask why England can't face up to their mistake and isn't on the path to fixing something so vitally essential to their national well-being. Maybe they need time to process and understand their powerlessness? Can they do this and still be English?
But do people who understand Brexit was shockingly bad decision, also realize it was one of Putin's operations, pushed by English politicians who obtained benefits from Russia and hoped to obtain more? No I don't.
Why would people suddenly begin to believe their own lying eyes? It's much easier for most to continue being an unpaid Russian operative than admit they were used.
No, I don't think most can accept the reality that Nigel Farage, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump and the rest of the gang are eager paid Russian "influencers". Most UK politicians and financial businesses have greatly enjoyed Russian money - Russians or Saudis own most of the great homes.
Maybe even many voters still want to vote for Trump and Putin hoping some Russian wealth will benefit them personally . . . I bet they think the Americans they call "deep state" are standing between them and their Russian bonanza Tucker Carlson has promised them.
Yes, they actually think Russia, a very poor nation with an economy smaller than the economy of California or Texas, will magically be able to grant them their fantasy wishes. Russia that can't even provide their own people's basic needs or deal with the racial tensions within their borders. I don't think many people are even remotely rational.
When here Kruschev wanted his limo to turn off the route randomly so he could find the real Americans that lived like poor Russians - because he couldn't believe it.
We're headed to England next week to visit with family. I think everyone with a brain now gets that Brexit was Russia's trial balloon. It worked so well there, they set their eyes on the US. Let's hope we can again prove like we did ~250 years ago, we're not Britain.
UK goods exports to the EU sank 27% and import goods 32% in the years since the Brexit deal was signed. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd988p00z1no
The study by the Birmingham-based Aston University Business School found the variety of UK exports has declined with 1,645 fewer types of British products exported to every EU country.
"The negative impacts of the Brexit trade agreement have intensified over time, with more pronounced trade declines in the most recent period."
Farmers, clothing makers, and wood and paper manufacturers have been among the hardest hit industries, with many sub-sectors' EU export value falling by well-over half. The biggest drop in export value was for edible fruit and nuts, which nosedived 73.5%.
Trade with smaller and more distant countries in the EU has been affected the most, while trade with larger and closer countries has been affected the least.
In response a government spokesperson told the BBC it will "work to improve our trade and investment relationship with the EU and tear down unnecessary trade barriers, while recognising that there will be no return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement." LOL
The UK has become a member of the new Trans-Pacific Partnership which the US has not joined. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership
The assassination attempt yesterday is at best curious. Trump's trip to this course was not planned or scheduled. Yet the gunman had been waiting across from the 5th tee for about 12 hours because he was; in no special order:
A. Part of an inside conspiracy to put Trump at the center of media attention and not about dog eating or debate losing.
B. Part of a criminal conspiracy to kill 45, (or 34 if you like), before he became 47.
C. The luckiest would-be killer in the world because he divined Trump would be golfing, he knew which of the three golf courses, all near each other, that Trump would choose. If so, he should have gone to a casino.
C2. The luckiest very poor would-be killer who had no money in his bank account but among other things, flew from Hawaii to Florida, bought an AR15, a Go Pro, a scope, ammunition and had a car.
Not that I feel sorry for him as he flails away but this one made me think of the Eagle's song Desperado.
Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?
You've been out ridin' fences for so long now
Oh, you're a hard one, but I know that you got your reasons
These things that are pleasin' you can hurt you somehow
Desperado, oh, you ain't gettin' no younger
Your pain and your hunger, they're drivin' you home
And freedom, oh, freedom, well, that's just some people talkin'
Your a prisoner walkin' through this world all alone
A few of the trades this morning. Round trip in NVDA 10 Puts, bought back LMT 3 Puts. Sold ET. Trimmed MU for a loss and DNBBY for even.
Added: LLY, OPRA, DVA, EGO, ILMN.
Closed BP for a loss.
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