Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[dexprs]

He makes less and less sense and keeps repeating himself. Kamala needs to debate him and sway more trumpetters her way.

[dexprs]

I have been cutting back on my China related investments ever since it peaked with their EV producers over a year ago and now it is down to less than 1% of the total portfolio.

[dexprs]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4719698-how-good-is-torms-22-percent-yield?mailingid=36659446&messageid=2850&serial=36659446.696&source=email_2850&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=36659446.696

[Elroy Jetson]

Dick Cheney is voting for Kamala Harris

[Elroy Jetson]

The nuttiest part of the China story is how they're gurgling in excess capacity to produce solar panels and coal-powered-battery-cars.

Guess what part of the world is least productive for solar panels, due to cloud cover and humidity . . . China. China says they'll eventually have nuclear plants to power those electric cars, just as we'll eventually deal with human caused climate change. Good thing China has a viscous dictatorship in place, because boy are they going to need it.

I saw a YouTube video of a Chinese speaking CNBC journalist trying out new electric cars in China. She pointed out how the steering wheel of one model was positioned about two to three inches to the right of the center of the driver's seat - the car actually designed that way to avoid spending money on an offset in the steering gearbox assembly.

Huge design defects in many of the car models - but the most cars come standard with electronic features like auto-park that they charge $3,500 for in the US, and are huge profit options as they actually cost the automaker only a few hundred Dollars. Chinese factories and home builders have incinerated Trillions of Dollars producing crap of no value - and are locked out of Europe, Canada, and the US due to anti-dumping tariffs.

[Elroy Jetson]

That's the problem with almost all stocks. Meta has strong support at $450, but the bad news is it's currently at $500.

I'd love to see the market head back up and pop back up to the highs of mid-July.

But I have a hunch Glen and I are going to be owing the government a pile of capital gains when we file our taxes come next February, and we'll have to have made the estimated payments before the end of the year.

The Fed lowering rates is good for many types of assets, except for the likely reasons the Fed will have to lower rates.


We're lucky taming inflation has been so easy with the Vortex of Deflation swirling in China, sending commodity prices lower - oil, gas, copper, metals, wheat, pork - all lower.

I think the luckiest people in the world are those whose prosperity doesn't depend on China. That's going to be and uglier and uglier place in coming years.

[dexprs]

META is pulling back and at 450 it has a strong support, if that fails it is a longer drop to sub 400.

[dexprs]

Sold RCL 13 Puts as the price turned up at 156.

[dexprs]

Bought back Calls: NVDA 10, GOOG 7, JD 10, ALGN 3
Bought back Outs RCL 12.
on the average 20-45% gains per trade.
Sold COP 7 Calls.
Added: TOELY, DNBBY.

[dexprs]

If you are looking for a high dividend payer here is one: CLCO, going ex dividend Monday and pays 14%, I added it this week.

[dexprs]

I agree, I will be adding to Home Builders today: MHO.

[santafe2]

Possibly comrade Kapncoh will want to move there. He will learn to choose vodka over wine.

[santafe2]

Will be good for real estate.

[Elroy Jetson]

Tenet Media found Tucker Mitchell not subtle enough to broadcast on their pro-Trump Russian influence network.

LOL. According to the DOJ indictment, one of Tenet Media's producers didn’t want to post Tucker Carlson's grocery store trip in Russia because they thought it was not subtle enough for a Russian influence operation: “It just feels like overt shilling" pic.twitter.com/SKBDr8zdUP

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 5, 2024

[dexprs]

Of the last three days, today was the toughest to be able to make positive trades. There were many sellers of oil and I had only one successful oil trade: buying back 5 Calls in DINO for the usual and rarely mentioned 10% gain.

[Elroy Jetson]

We're running the risk of seeing lower interest rates.

[santafe2]

The August ADP jobs report came in weak at just under 100,000. ADP extrapolates overall employment trends from a list of 25MM employees. This is the weakest jobs growth since January 2021.

Consumer revolving debt began to slow its growth in March and since then has only grown 1.3%. Consumers may be tapped out now that the COVID free money program has run its course and consumer revolving debt has increased by 45% since April 2021.

Student loan debt peaked in Q1 of 2023 at $1.78T, Since then the Biden administration has been able to lower that by 1.75%. They like to use the raw number, $33B, because it sounds like they're making a difference.

Over the last ~15 years, US government debt has increased by over $25T. That's an increase of 265% in 15 years while GDP only grew 92%. The social security trust fund currently has 11 years before its depleted.

As I look at the current level of consumer and federal government debt, I don't see a path out of this that doesn't require some type of painful reset. Who will suffer the most pain and when, remains to be seen.

[dexprs]

Added 1000 shares of SKWD.

[dexprs]

Round trip trade in NVDA 10 Covered Calls and just re sold them again. I like to sell Covered Calls when the stock is up, the higher the better and sell Cash Covered Puts when the stock is down, the lower the better. It is paying a premium based on the human weakness of greed and fear.

[dexprs]

Bought back Calls: COP 7 and NTLA the usual 1. Too stubborn to get rid of both, I should have according to my strength index. They are just average.

[dexprs]

Trades this morning. Opened: AFRM, CLCO, AIRI, re added IDR
Round trip traded: ANF Calls.
Sold MO 58 Puts and NVDA 10 Calls.

[Elroy Jetson]

The Justice Dept has revealed pro-Trump Tenet Media is a “covert propaganda project” controlled by the Russian government to “shape the public opinion in ‘Western audiences’”. https://www.tenetmedia.com/

The Tennessee firm created in 2023 has been paid $10 million by Russia Today to help re-elect Donald Trump and bolster Trump's effort to end support for Ukraine.

The Russian-paid self-described "Fearless Voices" include right-wing political commentators Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson, Laura Southern, Taylor Hansen, and Matt Christiansen. The top propagandist being paid a $400,000 monthly fee, a $100,000 signing bonus and an additional performance bonus.

Most of Tenet's videos focus on domestic politics, with recent titles including “Armed Migrant Gang Takes Over Colorado Apartment Building,” “The Great Replacement: Can We Finally Talk About It,” and “‘They Were Lied To:’ the TRUTH about Gender Ideology.”

RT was sanctioned and forced to cease operations in the U.S. and Canada following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. According to the indictment, Tenet and other projects like it were created as a response to the sanctions in order to foster a “covert network” to spread Russian messaging. In 2023, G. Kline Preston IV, a local attorney, and Steve Gill, a conservative pundit, both showed up on a list of 34 “foreign observers” who participated as observers in Russian elections in occupied Ukrainian territories.

Kostiantyn Kalashnikov and Elena Afanasyeva are charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering and violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act.

Tenet Media’s has featured high-profile conservative guests, including Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump, former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, and Presidential candidate Donald Trump. The nearly 2,000 videos posted by the company have gotten more than 16 million views on YouTube alone, prosecutors said.

[jbsliverer]

S&P index was higher four weeks later all eight times with gains ranging from 2-17%.




.

[dexprs]

SK Hynix to start mass producing HBM3E 12-layer chips this month
REUTERS 4:41 AM ET 9/4/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
HXSCF 0 0 (0%)
SSNLF 40.5999 0 (0%)
QUOTES AS OF ET
TAIPEI, Sept 4 (Reuters) - SK Hynix(HXSCF), the world's second-largest memory chip maker, will start mass production of HBM3E 12-layer chips by the end of this month, a senior executive said on Wednesday.

Justin Kim, president and head of the company's AI Infra division, made the comment at the Semicon Taiwan industry forum in Taipei.

In July, the South Korean company disclosed plans to ship the next versions of HBM chips - the 12-layer HBM3E - starting in the fourth quarter and the HBM4 starting in the second half of 2025.

High bandwidth memory (HBM) is a type of dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, standard first produced in 2013 in which chips are vertically stacked to save space and reduce power consumption. They are advanced memory chips capable of handling generative artificial intelligence (AI) work.

A key component of graphics processing units (GPUs) for AI, it helps process massive amounts of data produced by complex applications.

In May, SK Hynix(HXSCF) CEO Kwak Noh-Jung said its HBM chips were sold out for this year and almost sold out for 2025.

There are only three main manufacturers of HBM - SK Hynix(HXSCF), Micron and Samsung Electronics(SSNLF).

SK Hynix (HXSCF) has been the main supplier of HBM chips to Nvidia and supplied HBM3E chips in late March to a customer it declined to identify. (Reporting by Heekyong Yang and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Christian Schmollinger)

[dexprs]

Will history repeat itself and September will be the worst month of the year again? The start reads like that, but I am an optimist and the month is long, plus this is a good year for stocks.
In addition if we look back 99 years September had been an up month 55% of the time.

[dexprs]

Sold NFG 1000 shares for a $1 gain. Will buy it back about 2-3 dollars lower.

[dexprs]

Global data center industry to emit 2.5 billion tons of CO2 through 2030, Morgan Stanley says
REUTERS 2:34 PM ET 9/3/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
MSFT 410.1up -7.04 (-1.6877%)
AMZN 176.4499up -2.0501 (-1.1485%)
QUOTES AS OF 02:46:07 PM ET 09/03/2024
NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - A boom in data centers is expected to produce about 2.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions globally through the end of the decade, and accelerate investments in decarbonization efforts, according to Morgan Stanley research.

Hyperscalers, which include Google, Microsoft(MSFT) , Meta and Amazon(AMZN), are driving the swift proliferation of electricity-guzzling data centers to expand their artificial intelligence and cloud computing technologies. At the same time, the companies are holding onto pledges to slash global warming emissions from their centers by 2030.

"This creates a large market for decarbonization solutions," according to Morgan Stanley's research report on Monday, which said the greenhouse gas emissions by the global data center industry will amount to about 40% of what the entire U.S. emits in a year.

The build-out of the giant computer warehouses will increase investments in clean power development; energy efficient equipment and so-called green building materials, Morgan Stanley said. Carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) technology and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) processes are also expected to get a boost as tech companies try to keep their climate promises, the report said. (Reporting by Laila Kearney Editing by Marguerita Choy)

[dexprs]

ServiceNow call volume above normal and directionally bullish
THE FLY 1:25 PM ET 9/3/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
NOW 838.92down -16.08 (-1.8807%)
QUOTES AS OF 02:27:05 PM ET 09/03/2024
Bullish option flow detected in ServiceNow(NOW) with 7,197 calls trading, 2x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 4 points to 29.37%. 9/6 weekly 900 calls and Nov-24 740 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 2,600 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.60. Earnings are expected on October 23rd.

[dexprs]

IDR 2000 shares was bought at 12.3 just now sold at 13.21.

[dexprs]

Sold 3/5 of VITL holding of 300 shares for a 15% loss.

[dexprs]

INVH is breaking out of a 2 year trend. Volume is up and reaching for a high. I will nibble in. Thank you Josh Brown, from Ritholtz Wealth Management.

[dexprs]

Somebody on the board just sent me an email and wanted to know what would I do if the DJI dropped a 1000 points today? My answer was: I back up the truck and load up using another 45% of my cash.

[dexprs]

Bought back 56 Puts in MO and will sell 58 next time, using the net cash made on the trade.
This is about the place where historically it had been a safe place where nibbling in the markets was a profitable time, at least for me, for the last nearly 30 years.
These are the kind of markets I like to save up for, used about 25% of the cash, so far.

[dexprs]

Opened NOW at 948 100 shares.

[dexprs]

Added GCO 1000 shares and waiting for RSI and PPO to signal a buy for re adding NOW, it had been good for me in the past.

[dexprs]

With the SPX trying to go over 5650 for a while and failing each time it was only a question of days when it would give it up.

[dexprs]

Sold NVDA 10 Cash Covered Puts with a shrike price of 101 with expiration 9/27.

[dexprs]

Bought back another 5 NVDA Covered Calls for a 25% gain.

[dexprs]

A few morning trades.
Bought back GOOG, PFE and NVDA Calls.
Sold RCL Puts.
Added positions: FN, BVS, POWL, DEC, EVLV

[dexprs]

Shows a strong company or nothing to buy right now.

[Elroy Jetson]

Someone has had your thought previously. In the upside-down world of Trey Parker's "South Park", Donald Trump had run for PM of Canada, and many voted for him as a joke which turned out to be not quite so funny.

As one Canadian voter lamented: "He didn't really offer any solutions, he just said outrageous things. We thought it was funny. Nobody really thought he'd ever be PM. It was a joke! But we just let the joke go on for too long."

America quickly fills up with Canadian refugees fleeing the chaos of Trump's Canada.

In South Park episode "Where my Country Gone?" South Parks's math teacher Mr Garrison leads a crowd of angry Americans to the Canadian border where Canadian Prime Minister Donald Trump sits atop Canada's new Border Wall, built "so you filthy Americans can't rape our women and such and to preserve all our cool shit.."



This makes Mr Garrison so angry he illegally enters Canada inside a barrel going over Niagara Falls where he marches to Trump Tower in Toronto to murder Donald Trump for insulting America. As he enters the office, Donald Trump is dancing to the popular 1982 song "The Safety Dance".



Having proven his complete vulgarity and lack of ethics, Mr Garrison, wearing orange racoon make-up, with his sleazy but hot VP candidate Caitlyn Jenner are promptly elected to the White House - with the help of a new hallucinogenic food product called 'member berries which made the eater remember how good things used to be before there were immigrants in America. - https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/nov/10/south-park-spoofs-us-election-trump

[santafe2]

You can't pick your neighbors. Chicago's gun violence is high because Indiana has gun laws as dumb as Texas. They allow open carry and concealed carry without a permit. Gun shows are the wild west. Buy guns in Indiana and drive less than an hour to sell them out of your trunk in Chicago. Toronto has the same problem with the US. It's about 20 miles across Lake Ontario. Maybe they need a beautiful fence the likes of which we've never been seen before. A perfect fence.

[santafe2]

Yes, NVDA is so overpriced the company is buying $50B in their overpriced stock..:). It's difficult to wrap one's head around these large numbers but this is a $3T company so it's just a bit over 1%. Of course that 'bit' over 1% is another $20B. Pocket change.

[Elroy Jetson]

A Bremen ad agency has creates an AI generated pop-star singer, Ben Gaya (k)ein echter popstar, whose lyrics and music are so far largely forgettable.

The voice and image, generated by written prompts, sounds like a singer using auto-tune. The most difficult aspect is apparently making the voice sound like the same person from one song to the next.

Make sure the CC close caption option is on for English sub-titles.

[Elroy Jetson]

The boy and his imaginary publicist