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Bought back COP 7 Covered Calls for 12 cents, were sold 3 weeks ago for 29 cents.
Bought back ALGN 3 Covered Calls for 85 cents were sold yesterday for $1.15.
Bought back ANF 3 Covered Calls for 80 cents were sold for a dollar.
Bought back 10 Puts in MO for 40 cents were sold for 61 cents. MO often moves in the opposite direction from the overall market. That is one reason I like to trade it.
I dare say that 99% of the people did not know that.
I always liked Vanguard, even had my mother invested in their funds.
Yes Nick..agree. Anyone on margin will be selling or forced to sell soon, bringing the market lower.
Suggested my kids move 10% of cash into VGT at the open this morning. They have over 30 years of investing ahead of them and have avoided 15% in losses over the last few weeks. BTW, technology is not going away any time soon. VGT has a higher management cost than VOO, .9% vs. .3%. It also has, historically, higher returns. IMO, both are great for younger folks who are working and not able to follow the market closely.
I am very sure today is not a wash out day and a key reversal to the upside, but more losses are to follow. Congrats to all who are in cash, the more the better.
He's right, I'm tire of "winning".
This as all the other similar market drops would be a very strong buying opportunity, but not with this administration in charge of daily changes.
On a good news: I shut down 5 of my 6 computers over a month ago, since even the computers cannot predict how insanity will effect the markets, and saved $700 last month.
New US "reciprocal" import tariff rates are a childish HOAX.
Trump's import tariffs on each nation is merely that country’s total exports to the U.S. divided by the country’s trade balance, divided by two, with a minimum of 10%.
The import tariffs bear no relationship to that nation's import tariffs on US goods or non-tariff barriers — like regulations, sales taxes, currency manipulation.
Today will only be good for those short the market and buying back Covered Calls. The 10YT is dropping and nearing 4%.
This tariff war will continue until we have a new subject to occupy Dear Leader's "mind". The economy will see a Recession and higher prices at the same time, less employment, etc.
The markets just "loved " that speech they are down over 200 at the SPX and over 1200 in the DJI. The best speech you heard ever, it was brilliant, yeah.
There's at least a 50/50 chance this is just and old fashioned grift.
That's funny. My first thought as well.
Um...blame it on Biden..:)_
True, like I said before, IMO I don’t see the tariffs lasting.
Trump claims these "Pro-Fentanyl Republicans" Mitch McConnell - Kentucky, Susan Collins - Maine, Lisa Murkowski - Alaska, Rand Paul - Kentucky . . .
. . . are teaming up with Senate Democrats to stop Trump's import tariffs on fentanyl smuggled in from Canada!
This rant of deranged hallucinations probably sound perfectly sensible to the insane people living in the Trump / Fox alternate reality.
There's probably a lot of Trump loons ready to shoot Senators after reading this trash on "Pravda Social" — Fox and Trump continuing to weaponize the mentally ill.
If there's another pandemic Trump will blame it on Biden or Hillary Clinton - problem solved, at least to his satisfaction.
I wonder what they will do if there is and I am sure there will be sooner or later another bad epidemic.
According to a story in Wired the CDC was gutted yesterday. Thousands of workers showed up and their entry badges no longer worked. They were told by email they'd be RIF'd - Reduction in Force.
And another babbling, repetitious speech.
People who voted for Trump want chaos because they're miserably unhappy people who hope everyone else becomes as miserable as they are.
Of course things don't work that way, but most Trump voters will get get hurt themselves, and unfortunately some others will get hurt too.
If we're lucky, 20 months from now Americans will have grown tired of their government being run by a band of reckless Republican toddlers.
If Republicans are able to pass a major income tax cut for billionaires for next year, the entire experience will have been worth it for Trump's financial backers.
Evey American will be paying sharply higher retail prices to pay for the income tax cut for the wealthiest - Are you sick of all this winning yet ?
— Trump promised you would be.
If we're unlucky Trump will have enough time to do to America what Viktor Orbán has done to Hungary, the guy who helped write Project 2025.
Does the administration want chaos or do they understand that they are creating chaos? With the game rules changing daily/hourly it is hard to plan. Employment will drop. Businesses do not employ more people if they think their margins will shrink. Earnings likely will drop as the consumers pull their belt in.
What is wrong with tariffs?
Here's a more detailed explanation:
Increased Costs:
Tariffs, which are essentially taxes on imported goods, increase the cost of those goods, which businesses then often pass on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Reduced Trade:
Tariffs can make imported goods less competitive, leading to a decline in trade volumes and potentially harming businesses that rely on international trade.
Retaliation:
When one country imposes tariffs, other countries may retaliate with their own tariffs, leading to a trade war where multiple countries impose tariffs on each other's goods.
Distorted Markets:
Tariffs can distort markets by making domestic goods artificially competitive and foreign goods less competitive, which can lead to inefficiencies and reduced overall economic activity.
Impact on Developing Countries:
Tariffs can disproportionately harm developing countries, as they often rely on exporting goods to earn foreign currency and may not have the resources to compete with tariffs.
Reduced Consumer Choice:
Tariffs can lead to a reduction in the range of products available to consumers, as some imported goods may become too expensive to import
Increased Inflation:
Higher import costs due to tariffs can lead to increased inflation, as businesses pass on the higher costs to consumers.
Sold 10 Puts in MO with a strike price of 50 and expiration of 6/20, the premium received was 61 cents.
In the past, especially during times of change, I've posted estimates from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow as they often have a better handle on fast changing economic trends than the usual sources. Since the end of February when they, along with everyone else was forecasting 2+% growth for Q1, the usual suspects have dropped their average growth target to .3% and the Atlanta Fed has dropped their target to -4%. That's not a misprint.
They will continue to work their assessment over the rest of the month and it could be quite different by the end. The big problem is exports. When we tariff others, they tariff us back and our goods become less competitive so exports are dropping. Putin seems to be getting exactly what he and Musk and DJT talk about every week as they plan the dissolution of Western Democracy.
It is highly exaggerated by the administration and the crooks in the cabinet supporting it how much money the tariffs will bring in. Actually it will be higher taxes on the people.
When the price hikes hit the pocket book of the consumers then the backlash will accelerate against an already not liked djt economic management/miss.
Sold ALGN 3 Covered Calls at $1.14 with a strike price of 210 and exp. of 5/16.
It will be interesting to see how long it takes the Fed to understand that inflation is very likely not the longer term problem. Currently they're fighting a tsunami of inflation at the producer level created by the administration. Prior to the DJT clown car coming to town the PPI had fallen to just over 1% on an annual basis. Over the last two months producer price inflation has jumped up to 15% on an annual basis.
This change has barely trickled into the CPI so far and given the financial state of the US consumer, I'll be surprised if they don't cut back even further. This is what the market expects as the XLY, (discretionary stocks), is down 14% over the last two months. During that same time period the XLP, (consumer staples), is up 5%. These two S&P 500 sectors measure what consumers want verses what the need. Wall Street is seldom wrong when they begin moving money not just out of the market but also into defensive sectors like energy, financials and utilities.
DJT is expected to be announcing 25% tariffs on auto and auto parts at 4:00PM Eastern. If he follows through the auto industry in the US is dead, except Tesla of course.
The March CPI will be announced on Thursday 4/10 and the PPI on Friday 4/11.
Unusual total active option classes on open include: Bitfarms(BITF) , NextDecade Corp(NEXT) , Dollar General(DG) , Roblox(RBLX) , Trump Media(DJT) , Capri Holdings(CPRI) , Altria Group(MO) , Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) , iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), and Carnival (CCL).
Sold MO 30 Puts at 71 cents with a strike price of 52.5.
An excellent way to lose more voters in this case the few African-Americans who voted for him. The road he is going down will be littered with Republican voters and deserters from him. Good!
He will get older, but not wiser at this rate.
Erasing Lincoln
The capital city of Nebraska will have to change its name.
by Robert Kuttner - April 1, 2025 - https://prospect.org/politics/2025-04-01-erasing-lincoln/
President Trump stunned Nebraskans today with his demand that the state change the name of its capital, Lincoln, or lose federal funding.
“Lincoln was the original DEI president,” Trump said on his site Truth Social. “Not only did he give racial preferences to former slaves in his land grab program of forty acres and a mule. He sent the Union Army to occupy the South to prohibit most white people from voting and sponsored birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment, which has been abused ever since.”
“I never really liked the guy,” Trump added. “Race relations were fine in the South until Lincoln started a totally unnecessary Civil War. If he understood real estate, he could have made a deal.”
Trump proposed that the name of the state capital be changed from Lincoln to Hayes, in honor of Rutherford B. Hayes, the president who ended Reconstruction in the corrupt Compromise of 1877. “Hayes was a truly great man,” Trump said. “He worked with leaders of both parties to prevent discrimination against white people.”
The reaction of Nebraska leaders was guarded. “We love President Trump,” said Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican. “But folks around here kind of like the name of our state capital.” In the 2024 election, Trump beat Kamala Harris in Nebraska by a margin of 59.6 to 39.1 percent.
Lincoln Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird, a Democrat and a graduate of Yale and Oxford, pointed to the odd timing. “This is April Fools’ Day,” she said. “This has to be a spoof.”
Robert Kuttner is co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect, and professor at Brandeis University’s Heller School.
President, William McKinley introduced some of the largest tax hikes in U.S. history through import tariffs in 1890.
But in his second Presidential term, McKinley changed his mind, and argued for more free trade.
The Republican import tariffs were not well received by Americans who suffered a steep increase in prices.
In the 1890 election, Republicans lost their majority in the House with the number of seats they won reduced by nearly half, from 171 to 88.
Yet Donald Trump often cites the 25th President as his inspiration for his home-brew of ever-changing import tariffs.
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/why-trumps-tariff-idol-mckinley-abandoned-his-own-tariff-policy/38A9364C-142B-4656-AFE3-B6F7F4F504E2
An older and wiser William McKinley in 1900
Trump reads very slowly and not well, probably due to dyslexia. Very important speeches he memorizes through repetition.
Donald typically uses a piece of paper with phrases on it to remind him what he's going to say, sometimes in his jacket pocket. When there's no note paper he's just making just making up bullshit on the spot.
In several interviews people have asked John Bolton why Trump is so much more belligerent, rude and prone to telling lies than he was in his prior term . . .
. . . Bolton, as well as others, has said, "Well, that's the Trump I dealt with everyday. In his previous administration he was filtered and coaxed back to reality."
I previously posted this interview from Deutsche Welle:
DW host Brent Goff: Greenlanders have an election tomorrow, Trump has repeated his call for the US to take over the island. Is there a Trump strategy here?
John Bolton: No, these are just random neuron flashes and he doesn't think through the consequences of what he says.
So let's just take Canada as an example, in the upcoming elections in a few months, up until Trump started opening his mouth, the Conservative party had a 20-point lead over the ruling Liberal party which has just elected a new leader and therefore a new prime minister. Since Trump began calling Canada the 51st state the margin has dropped to the point where the Liberals could win. This is all due to Trump, not because the Liberals have improved. Trump is aberrational, he doesn't even understand what he's talking about.
In respect to Greenland there are a number of things that could be done to take care of American and really NATO interests in keeping the Russians and the Chinese from exerting an undue influence in and around Greenland in the maritime domain and with regard to its mineral assets, but when Trump slaps friends publicly they react negatively, so I don't know what will happen in the Greenlandic elections.
I hope together with Denmark we can find a way through this, but this is the nature of the problem. It does not reflect a fundamental change in the United States, it reflects purely Donald Trump at the moment he is talking.
Does trump have a speech writer or he is winging it each time he publicly speaks?
Analysis-US tariffs on Vietnam would be a blow to Nike and other sportswear brands
REUTERS 9:48 AM ET 4/1/2025
Symbol Last Price Change
NKE 64.495down +1.015 (+1.5989%)
COLM 76.65up +0.96 (+1.2683%)
AS 26.57down -0.16 (-0.5986%)
QUOTES AS OF 11:18:34 AM ET 04/01/2025
By Nicholas P. Brown and Helen Reid
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Nike(NKE) could soon face another blow in its effort to revive its brand and reverse a long decline in sales: U.S. tariffs on imports from Vietnam.
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce which countries and products he will target with a new round of tariffs aimed at encouraging domestic production and coaxing other nations to buy more U.S. goods.
Vietnam, which runs a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the United States, is a prime target.
Nike (NKE) is one of several sportswear brands heavily reliant on Vietnam as a production site and higher tariffs would force the company to absorb higher costs or hike its prices at a time when it is already discounting some items to clear inventory.
Nike (NKE) produced 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam in its 2024 financial year, according to its annual report. Rival Adidas is slightly less exposed, relying on Vietnam for 39% of its footwear and 18% of its apparel.
The average U.S. tariff rate on footwear from Vietnam is 13.6%, while the rate on apparel is 18.8%, according to calculations based on January trade data made by Sheng Lu, professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware.
"If tariffs are extended there, then Nike's(NKE) got a problem," said Morningstar analyst David Swartz.
Nike (NKE) and Adidas are hardly alone. Vietnam has become a hub for high-tech running shoes, sportswear, and outdoor apparel as brands have sought to reduce exposure to China.
Lululemon, Columbia Sportswear(COLM) and Amer Sports(AS), which owns Salomon and Arc'Teryx, count Vietnam as their top manufacturing country.
But the potential tariffs come at a critical moment for Nike(NKE), which has lost market share of late to competitors viewed as fresher and more innovative, like On and Hoka.
In a quarterly earnings call last month, Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said Nike's(NKE) revenue was expected to continue to fall next quarter.
That outlook factored in current tariffs, said Mari Shor, senior equities analyst with Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which holds Nike(NKE) shares. "But what if it gets worse?"
INDUSTRY BRACES FOR IMPACT
Some smaller, younger sportswear brands are even more exposed to Vietnam. Fast-growing running brand On in 2024 sourced 90% of its shoes and 60% of its apparel and accessories from the country.
On shoes are already expensive, selling for $130 to $330 a pair, and Samuel Wenger, the brand's chief operating officer, said tariffs were among the factors On considers when deciding on price. "Our premium brand gives us the ability to adapt our pricing thoughtfully," he told Reuters.
Average U.S. prices of sneakers have already risen by 25% since 2019, partly because of rising production costs, said Beth Goldstein, footwear industry analyst at market research firm Circana.
While U.S. sales of running shoes have risen 16% to $7.4 billion since 2021, according to Circana's Consumer Tracking Service, U.S. consumer confidence recently hit a four-year low, suggesting more price increases could prove hard to swallow.
Moving production out of Vietnam is no simple matter. Other Southeast Asian countries, such as Cambodia and Indonesia, could face tariffs too, and production costs are already rising there.
Factories in Cambodia are charging 5% to 10% more as they get more orders from retailers looking to shift production from China or Vietnam, said Michael Yee, CEO at apparel and accessories sourcing company MGF Sourcing in Hong Kong.
Nike (NKE), Adidas and Amer Sports(AS) declined to comment on questions about Vietnam tariffs. Lululemon and Columbia Sportswear(COLM) did not reply to Reuters requests for comment.
The good news, say experts, is that tariffs on imports from Vietnam - particularly for apparel - are unlikely to be as steep as those in China.
Leaders in Hanoi have taken several steps to stay in Trump's good graces, promising more imports from the U.S., lower duties, and allowing Starlink - the satellite company owned by Trump adviser Elon Musk - to offer its internet services in the country.
The Trump Organization, meanwhile, is partnering with Vietnam on potential investments in hotel, real estate and golf course projects possibly worth billions of dollars.
"Vietnam has proven its ability to play the geopolitical game very skillfully," said T. Rowe Price portfolio manager Johannes Loefstrand, who runs a Frontier Markets Equity strategy weighted towards Vietnam stocks.
Wilbur Ross, who served as commerce secretary in Trump's first administration, said the president had generally good ties with Vietnam and had no reason to hit it hard with tariffs that would be felt on main street.
"People notice the cost of apparel because they buy it fairly frequently," Ross told Reuters.
(Reporting by Nicholas Brown in New York and Helen Reid in London; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
People who are counting on the economy to be stronger due to de regulation, are mistaken, there will be more and unpredictable regulations coming.
Seems like uncertainty would go away after tomorrow, but I doubt it, something else or more of the same will be tossed onto the heap.
American designs on Canada have a long history, predating even our independence and featuring some very familiar names. “You are a small people,” concluded one early overture, “compared to those who with open arms invite you into a fellowship.”
The approaches have changed over time, but the courtship has invariably played out with all the grace and romance of Pepé Le Pew on the trail of Penelope Pussycat. On several occasions, it has blown up in our faces. “Alas, Canada, we have had misfortune and disgrace in that quarter,” John Adams warned some 250 years ago. As another president now hints at a northern expansion, we might care to remember the humbling earlier forays.
In October 1774, the First Continental Congress resolved to dispatch an appeal to Quebec, which was then essentially a synonym for Canada. Over 18 eloquent pages, the letter enumerated the rights of a free people. Though it urged no acts of hostility, it reminded the Canadians that they could expect no better treatment from their common sovereign than did their American counterparts. Might they care to travel — “in order to complete this highly desirable union” — to Philadelphia for the next Congress, in May? To the high-minded rhetoric was added a prod: Canada would be wise to count the rest of North America among its “unalterable friends” rather than its “inveterate enemies.”
Though no Canadian delegates materialized in Philadelphia that May, Congress remained undeterred. A new letter went out “to the oppressed inhabitants of Canada,” this one drafted by John Jay. British rule, the letter argued, reduced Canadians to slavery and endangered their religious freedom. “We can never believe that the present race of Canadians are so degenerated as to possess neither the spirit, the gallantry, nor the courage of their ancestors,” the letter continued. How would they explain their cowardice to their children? It ended with a familiar threat: The Americans hoped the Canadians would not “reduce us to the disagreeable necessity of treating you as enemies.”
Before it adjourned in August 1775, Congress authorized an invasion of Canada. In a full-battalion-to-remind-you-of-my-love kind of missive, George Washington informed the Canadians that Benedict Arnold was heading their way with a detachment. “Come then, my brethren,” he wrote, “unite with us in an indissoluble union, and let us run together to the same goal.”
Congress was sanguine about the prospects, expecting, as Thomas Jefferson put it, “every hour to be informed that Quebec has opened its arms to Colonel Arnold.” Around the time Washington was writing his hopeful letter, Arnold and his ludicrously ill-equipped men were surviving on dead dogs and boiled cartridge belts.
Though the siege of Quebec proved a disaster, Congress continued to believe the Canadians were eager to join their revolt. “The unanimous voice of the continent is Canada must be ours, Quebec must be taken,” crowed John Adams in February. Congress that month opted for diplomacy, appointing a commission that consisted of Charles Carroll, among the wealthiest men in America and a French-speaking Catholic; his Jesuit cousin, Father John Carroll; and two members of Congress. The eldest of the group, the longtime colonial fixer and the American with the greatest experience of the wider world, was Benjamin Franklin.
The commissioners were not only to persuade the Canadians that union was in their best political interest, but also to seduce their northern neighbors with dreams of glory. It was to promise freedom of religion and establish freedom of the press. Against all odds and at some expense, a printing press also made its laborious way to Montreal. It was one illustration of the American understanding of her northern neighbors: Over 90 percent of French Canada was at the time illiterate.
The members of the commission traveled less comfortably than did the press, meeting with gale winds and ice floes. They slept in the woods, on a tented ship and in a pillaged cabin, amid weather that could freeze shut a sentry’s eyes. Franklin’s legs swelled. Boils erupted on his skin. He recognized that he had taken on an assignment that at his age — he was 70 — would likely spell his end. He wrote farewell letters to friends.
In Montreal, the delegates discovered they had embarked on the original Canadian goose chase. It was difficult to convince a people that they should place themselves under American protection when the American troops were without provisions or funds, undisciplined, underdressed and unfit for duty. Nearly half had succumbed to smallpox. Shortly after British reinforcements arrived, the commissioners reported miserably to Congress: Canadians “have suffered us to enter their country as friends” and the Americans managed to turn “their good dispositions towards us into enmity, and makes them wish our departure.”
Franklin, said to be “pitifully unwell,” returned home, accompanied by a Montreal couple who took “such liberties in taunting at our conduct in Canada,” he reported, “that it came almost to a quarrel.”
Congress appointed a committee to investigate the Canadian fiasco, producing a long list of causes but omitting the obvious: The Canadians had no interest in revolt. As Father Carroll noted, they did not believe themselves oppressed. Not only did their interests refuse to align, but also the Canadians entertained very different ideas about government. It was almost as if Canada were a foreign country.
For all the miscalculations, neither Franklin nor Washington could relinquish the idea of annexing Canada. Nor could the Marquis de Lafayette, who was promised a command of 2,500 men and given instructions to invade. Somehow the expedition was meant to head out in February, not an ideal time for a Canadian “irruption.” No one had bothered to supply the troops with winter clothing. Congress called off the mission, which Lafayette had described as a “hell of blunders, madness and deception.” His second in command was left wondering if those who had cooked up the ridiculous plan had been traitors or idiots.
At the end of the War of Independence, before the 1783 peace negotiations, Franklin attempted a Hail Mary pass: Should the British not offer up Canada as reparations for the many towns they had burned? Surely a gesture of good will was in order. The British did not find the idea compelling.
Despite the vexed history, — at least one of us seems — to be here again.
It isn’t easy to beat up on modern-day Canada, which hasn’t offended anyone since the great Turbot War of 1995 (Spain, fishing rights). For all the early American missteps, at least in the 18th century, the motives were clear: The northern colonists felt vulnerable to British and Indian attack. As Washington had it, Canada “would have been an important acquisition, and well worth the expenses incurred in the pursuit of it.” Today, there is no sane motive, unless mugging a sovereign nation that happens to be both your closest friend and your most trusted trading partner constitutes reasonable foreign policy. Even George Washington would be hard-pressed to write an appeal to modern Canada — the land of universal health care, universal maternity leave and affordable tuition; a country with a sense of decency, gun control and superior life expectancy; a country that still teaches cursive handwriting — that could persuade it to unite with its southern neighbor. We do not appear to be running together to the same goal. Pepé Le Pew is never going to get that cat.
Already America has submitted to remedial instruction on the cost of overstepping our northern border. In 1812 U.S. generals boasted all over again about liberating Canada, still a British colony, from “tyranny and oppression.” Brig. Gen. William Hull, glorying in the sight of the American flag flying over present-day Windsor, Ontario, demanded a cordial welcome for the invading force, there to emancipate. Two summers later, in a retaliatory raid, the White House went up in flames.
MAGA conservatives love Viktor Orbán. But he’s left his country corrupt, stagnant, and impoverished
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/05/viktor-orban-hungary-maga-corruption/682111/?gift=NXi3_pdmbnIFddYEU4kBKbf_Ath1DonPMmppL7j2z_w&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Flashy hotels and upmarket restaurants now dominate the center of Budapest, a city once better known for its shabby facades. New monuments have sprung up in the center of town too. One of them, a pastiche of the Vietnam War memorial in Washington, D.C., mourns Hungary’s lost 19th-century empire. Instead of war dead, the names of formerly “Hungarian” places—cities and villages that are now in Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine, Poland—are engraved in long granite walls, solemnly memorialized with an eternal flame.
But the nationalist kitsch and tourist traps hide a different reality. Once widely perceived to be the wealthiest country in Central Europe (“the happiest barrack in the socialist camp,” as it was known during the Cold War), and later the Central European country that foreign investors liked most, Hungary is now one of the poorest countries, and possibly the poorest, in the European Union. Industrial production is falling year-over-year. Productivity is close to the lowest in the region. Unemployment is creeping upward. Despite the ruling party’s loud talk about traditional values, the population is shrinking. Perhaps that’s because young people don’t want to have children in a place where two-thirds of the citizens describe the national education system as “bad,” and where hospital departments are closing because so many doctors have moved abroad. Maybe talented people don’t want to stay in a country perceived as the most corrupt in the EU for three years in a row. Even the Index of Economic Freedom—which is published by the Heritage Foundation, the MAGA-affiliated think tank that produced Project 2025—puts Hungary at the bottom of the EU in its rankings of government integrity.
Tourists in central Budapest don’t see this decline. But neither, apparently, does the American right. For although he has no critical mineral wealth to give away and not much of an army, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, plays an outsize role in the American political debate. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Orbán held multiple meetings with Donald Trump. In May 2022, a pro-Orbán think tank hosted CPAC, the right-wing conference, in Budapest, and three months later, Orbán went to Texas to speak at the CPAC Dallas conference. Last year, at the third edition of CPAC Hungary, a Republican congressman described the country as “one of the most successful models as a leader for conservative principles and governance.” In a video message, Steve Bannon called Hungary “an inspiration to the world.” Notwithstanding his own institution’s analysis of Hungarian governance, Kevin Roberts of the Heritage Foundation has also described modern Hungary “not just as a model for modern statecraft, but the model.”
What is this Hungarian model they so admire? Mostly, it has nothing to do with modern statecraft. Instead it’s a very old, very familiar blueprint for autocratic takeover, one that has been deployed by right-wing and left-wing leaders alike, from Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Hugo Chávez. After being elected to a second term in 2010, Orbán slowly replaced civil servants with loyalists; used economic pressure and regulation to destroy the free press; robbed universities of their independence, and shut one of them down; politicized the court system; and repeatedly changed the constitution to give himself electoral advantages. During the coronavirus pandemic he gave himself emergency powers, which he has kept ever since. He has aligned himself openly with Russia and China, serving as a mouthpiece for Russian foreign policy at EU meetings and allowing opaque Chinese investments in his country.
This autocratic takeover is precisely what Bannon, Roberts, and others admire, and are indeed seeking to carry out in the U.S. right now. The destruction of the civil service is already under way, pressure on the press and universities has begun, and thoughts of changing the Constitution are in the air. But proponents of these ideas rarely talk about what happened to the Hungarian economy, and to ordinary Hungarians, after they were implemented there. Nor do they explore the contradictions between Orbán’s rhetoric and the reality of his policies.
Orbán talks a lot about blocking immigration, for example, but at one point his government issued visas to any non-EU citizen who bought 300,000 euros’ worth of government bonds from mysterious and mostly offshore companies.
He rhapsodizes about family values, even though his government spends among the lowest amounts per capita on health care in the EU, controls access to IVF, and notoriously decided to pardon a man who covered up sexual abuse in children’s homes.
Orbán also talks a lot about “the people” while using his near-absolute power not to build Hungarian prosperity but to enrich a small group of wealthy businessmen, some of whom are members of his family. In Budapest, these oligarchs are sometimes called NER, or NER-people, or NERistan—nicknames that come from Nemzeti Együttmuködés Rendszere or System of National Cooperation, the Orwellian name that Orbán gave to his political system—and they benefit directly from their proximity to the leader. Direkt36, one of the few remaining investigative-journalism teams in Hungary, recently made a documentary, The Dynasty, showing, for example, how competitions for state- and EU-funded contracts, starting in about 2010, were deliberately designed so that Elios Innovatív, an energy company co-owned by Orbán’s son-in-law István Tiborcz, would win them. The EU eventually looked into 35 contracts and found serious irregularities in many of them, as well as evidence of a conflict of interest. (In a 2018 statement, Elios said that it had followed legal regulations, which is no doubt true; the whole point of this system is that it is legal.)
That story is just one of many that Hungarians recount to one another, just not in public. The Dynasty also describes the Kisfaludy Tourism Development Programme, which distributed 316 billion Hungarian forints ($860 million) in grants. Two-thirds of those grants went to 0.5 percent of the applicants; almost one-fifth of them went to projects that were, or later became, connected to Tiborcz. Not that Tiborcz is the only recipient of government largesse. Lorinc Mészáros, at one time the richest man in Hungary, a gas fitter turned entrepreneur who is an old friend of the prime minister’s, once attributed his fortune to “God, luck, and Viktor Orbán.” Other beneficiaries come and go, depending on Orbán’s whim. One Hungarian businessman told me that “you can tell who is in, who is out by seeing whose companies begin growing. If you are in, then your company is growing. If you’re out, your company goes from this big to this small. You see it in a year or two.”
This kind of corruption is, again, mostly legal, because the laws, contracts, and procurement rules are written in such a way as to permit it. Even if this activity were illegal, party-controlled prosecutors would not investigate it. But the scale of the corruption is large enough to distort the rest of the economy. The Hungarian businessman and a Hungarian economist I spoke with—both of whom insisted on anonymity, for fear of retaliation—had separately calculated that NERistan amounts to about 20 percent of the Hungarian economy. That means, as the economist explained to me, that 20 percent of Hungary’s companies operate “not on market principles, not on merit-based principles, but basically on loyalty.” These companies don’t have normal hiring practices or use real business models, because they are designed not for efficiency and profit but for kleptocracy—passing money from the state to their owners.
Not that the regime ever acknowledges the role that the oligarchy plays in the system, or even concedes that Hungary might face a structural crisis. Another Hungarian economist told me that Orbán always predicts “very bright days in the future; success, unimaginable success.”
“Please trust us,” Orbán declared in his annual state-of-the-nation speech in early 2023. “You can bet on it: By the end of the year, we will have inflation in single digits.” In fact, annual average inflation in 2023 was more than 17 percent. In 2024, the government predicted 4 percent growth; the reality was 0.6 percent. Anyone who contradicts this messaging is unlikely to be widely heard. Independent economists are rarely invited to appear on public television, or in any media controlled by the ruling party. In February 2024, the regime created the Sovereignty Protection Office, a sinister body that harasses and smears independent Hungarian organizations. It has redoubled its efforts since the U.S. election and the assault on USAID. The office’s targets include the Hungarian branch of Transparency International, the anti-corruption investigative group, as well as an investigative-news portal, Atlatszo.hu—any entity that could tell the truth about how the country really works.
But the truth is not hard to perceive for anyone who cares to look, because the beneficiaries of this corrupt system are not shy about showing off their wealth. When I mentioned the shiny hotels in central Budapest to a Hungarian friend, he snorted. “Of course, that’s where the NER-people live,” he said. “They want it to look nice.” Also, they own quite a few of them. The Dynasty, the documentary, includes footage of the Hungarian elite partying at clubs and in palaces, and garnered more than 3 million views within a month, a large number in a country of 9.6 million. Thousands of comments underneath the video on YouTube thank the Direkt36 reporters for showing “true reality” not available anywhere else.
In many ways, Hungary is about as different from the U.S. as it is possible to be: small, poor, homogeneous. But I watched the film with a sense of foreboding. As Elon Musk, a government contractor, sets fire to our civil service and makes decisions about the departments that regulate him; as the FBI and the Justice Department are captured by partisans who will never prosecute their colleagues for corruption; as inspectors general are fired and rules about conflicts of interest are ignored, America is spinning quickly in the direction of Hungarian populism, Hungarian politics, and Hungarian justice. But that means Hungarian stagnation, Hungarian corruption, and Hungarian poverty lie in our future too.
Yes, volume on close but it's normally 2 or 3x not 20x. WS is driving well over the speed limit without a seat belt or an air bag. It won't end well but I'd like to make a few dollars until they crash. I'm sure we'll see it coming.
As I noted last week, I'm taking a fresh look at the market after well over a year away. I've been reviewing all of my charts and as much as DJT is attempting to create a recession, I'm not sure he'll do it or I think it will just be a slight US recession with the rest of the world doing just fine. Tariffs are just dumb but we shouldn't expect much more from someone who has gone bankrupt more than he's famously been divorced.
After updating most of my charts I can't make an argument for more than a correction here, (yes the market is still uninvestable, but it's tradeable). I don't think this downtrend is over but I also don't see an end to this bull market given the potential for AI to begin to disrupt bureaucratic obstructions to information as the internet did 20 years ago. DJT is a horrible social problem but for investors he may be a blip on the investing radar.
I would ask that no one follow my advice as I'm just diving back into this but I think today was a very typical example of what we've been seeing for the last few weeks. But today was the 'on steroids' version of Wall Street bending over ma and pa investor.
1. Drop the market hard at the open.
2. Don't offer any support in the first hour and hope all the rubes look at Friday and today and just jump ship.
3. Then begin to buy millions of shares. Make them think they just missed out on the turnaround.
But what was Wall Street buying? Tech sucks. Software sucks. Communications sucks. etc. etc. etc. Wall Street was driving the market up hard today with defensive stocks. Can you imagine how much they were buying in the unimportant sectors to drive the market up this hard in the afternoon?
Here's the big winners: Discover, Live Nation, Fox, AIG, Paramount, Capital One, Altria, Ford, Dollar Tree and Walmart. Now there's a list of not one company I want to invest in. Wall Street is building a bunker for the super rich just in case - but they are not leaving the market.
If one were to make the argument that we're about to enter another great recession because of the rise of authoritarianism they would have to explain the 20% rise in the copper prices. It's such a basic product. We're getting played but only to the extent we allow ourselves to be played. There's no sheriff and Wall Street knows there's no sheriff. While that makes their criminality obviously annoying it also makes it easier to read. Let's try to do that.
March was better than February for my trading accounts at +1.1%.
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