Replies to post #48454 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[Dimension]

i hear you...but i guess the difference might be this....

I am not looking at the economic/fundamental data today and asking does it support the price we are trading at today or does it support future price. What i am instead asking is does the data today, justify the bottom last october, or was that low too shallow based on what we now know? I reason that the lows in october did accurately price in the state of our economy today.

So i think in october, the market did price accurately, 6 to 8 months ahead. What i now wonder is...what could this market be pricing in Oct/Nov and has the move we have had thus far completely priced in whatever that is?

Again, i am not married to any positions or possible outcome, but as of right now, i need to see a sustained sell off. That may very well come soon...if it does happen, i'm protected for now.

[Elroy Jetson]

Some investors saw a series of hopeful signs, decreased rates of decline, and green shoots during the 1930 to 1932 decline. The longest period of optimism lasted 77 days.

Although I too watch for opportunities to invest, I think the real opportunity to invest is another two years into the future.