Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[RichardTC]

There's an argument to be made for the market leading the economy by 6-8 months, but that's not what I see happening. The classic example is economic data showing signs of an upturn and then the market rallying subtantially. What you're seeing now is people cherry picking data for anything that shows decreased rates of decline in isolated regions and then proclaiming that the economy has bottomed. 1) Decreasing rates of decline are not the same thing as growth. 2) You can't basis analysis on outlier data. Yes, it bears monitoring but that doesn't mean you go contrarian (long) based on it. Beyond that, I am very suspicious of any data showing increased consumer spending when that completely contradicts what I am seeing/hearing from friends in KS, NY and TX.