Too early to draw conclusions from the slight uptick. Remember that the "Intel news" has already been heavily built into the stock price, because of the erosion in PE multiples since December and reaction to Otilleni's comments of a week ago. Finally all that the market has been fearing has finally happened to Intel.
I wish that the Obama Administration would take office next week. This ten week pause is killing. The economy is an inward spiral of lower consumer spending giving rise to higher unemployment and lower stock price, which is giving even less consumer spending. The lame duck administration has been ineffective in halting this, and the new one will not be there for a while. In the interim the hole keeps on getting deeper at a rapid rate, and it will take much longer to dig out.
I am surprised by the speed of the change in Intel's guidance. There must have been a large number of order cancellations, since the new guidance is significantly lower than the old minimum. Means that there will be significant inventory accumulation. No wonder Maloney talked of shipping goods within 24 hours. This becomes a "turns business" environment. Customers do not place orders weeks or months ahead, since they can buy immediately. This typically leads to even worse visibility into the business.
Siince the capacity constraints on Atom are now gone, its ASP will probably drop and will probably take a bigger chunk of AMDs business, ie the bottom end of the market, where users do not go for the best price performance ratio, but buy the cheapest product despite the poor performance. The financial bleeding from AMD will definitely get a lot worse, at a time when Abu Dhabis income is in a free fall. The deal will most likely get renegotiated, which is not the best situation for AMD.
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