Here's a comparison chart of the V/L Arithmetic Index vs. the S&P 500 from Dec. 1997 to today. Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance:
The VAY peaked on April 15, 2002 at 1324.52. All the material that I've read from V/L indicates they use their indexes in the projections for the VLAP. Now, here's the rub: (from Yahoo Finance's Glossary)
"An arithmetic index gives equal weight to the percentage price change of each stock that's included in the index.
In computing the index, the percentage changes of all the stocks are added, and the total is divided by the number of stocks. The percentage price changes of large companies aren't counted more heavily, as they are in a market-capitalization weighted index.
An arithmetic index is a more accurate measure of total stock market performance than an index that stresses relatively few high-priced or large-company stocks. However, some analysts point out that it may also produce higher total return figures than other indexing methods.
The best known arithmetic index in the US is the one computed by Value Line, Inc., which tracks the approximately 1,700 stocks the company analyzes regularly. Standard & Poor's also calculates an arithmetic version of the S&P 500 index."
So, when considering appreciation potential, it is statistical easier to get a higher index level based on the arithmetic protocol. Comparing the V/L index with the market cap weighted S&P bears this out.
To use the VLAP then, one has to use the V/L Arithmetic Index as its "yardstick" to compare projected returns of the VLAP.
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